Traders might rejoice now that Bitcoin price ventured above $17,400, but 27 long days have passed since Bitcoin (BTC អ) last breached the $17,250 resistance.
On December 13, after a two-week-long lateral movement, Bitcoin posted a 6.5% rally toward $18,000 and even though the current movement still lacks strength, traders believe that a retest of the $18,250 resistance remains possible.
To start the week, the S&P 500 index rose to its highest level in 26 days on Jan. 9. Weak economic data had previously fueled investors’ expectation of slower interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Jan. 12 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could lend some credence to this expectation.
On Jan. 6, German retail sales data showed a 5.9% year-on-year contraction took place in November. In the U.S., economic activity in the services sector contracted in December after 30 consecutive months of growth. The Services Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) reading was 49.6%, and readings below 50% typically point toward a weakening economy.
Investors anxiously wait for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Jan. 12, which is more likely to dictate whether the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 in early February. Economists expect the report to show inflation increased by 6.6% in the 12 months to December, so a weaker-than-consensus CPI could further boost markets’ performance.
Still, the impacts of a year-long bear market continue to play out as digital asset manager Osprey Funds reportedly laid off most of its staff during the second half of 2022. The investment company offers crypto products for its accredited investors’ brokerage accounts, including a trust.
Analysts should focus on និស្សន្ទវត្ថុ Bitcoin to understand if the recent positive price action has finally turned crypto investors’ sentiment positive.
The futures premium shows sentiment is slowly improving
ពាណិជ្ជករលក់រាយជាធម្មតាជៀសវាងអនាគតប្រចាំត្រីមាសដោយសារតម្លៃខុសគ្នាពីទីផ្សារកន្លែង។ ទន្ទឹមនឹងនេះ ពាណិជ្ជករដែលមានជំនាញវិជ្ជាជីវៈចូលចិត្តឧបករណ៍ទាំងនេះ ពីព្រោះពួកគេការពារការឡើងចុះនៃអត្រាមូលនិធិនៅក្នុង ក កិច្ចសន្យាអនាគតជារៀងរហូត.
The two-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Thus, when the futures trade below such a range, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers — typically, a bearish indicator.
The above chart shows positive momentum for the Bitcoin futures premium, which recovered from a 3% discount on Dec. 30 to the current positive 1%. Although it is still in the neutral-to-bearish area, it represents less pessimism versus Dec. 13, before Bitcoin price pumped to $18,000. However, the demand for leverage longs at $17,000 is shy according to the metric.
Before jumping to conclusions, traders should also analyze Bitcoin’s options markets ដើម្បីមិនរាប់បញ្ចូលធាតុខាងក្រៅជាក់លាក់ចំពោះឧបករណ៍អនាគត។
Options are pricing similar risks for upside and downside
25% delta skew គឺជាសញ្ញាប្រាប់នៅពេលដែលអ្នកបង្កើតទីផ្សារ និងតុ arbitrage កំពុងគិតថ្លៃលើសសម្រាប់ការការពារការកើនឡើង ឬការធ្លាក់ចុះ។
នៅក្នុងទីផ្សារធ្លាក់ចុះ អ្នកវិនិយោគជម្រើសផ្តល់ហាងឆេងខ្ពស់សម្រាប់ការបោះចោលតម្លៃ ដែលបណ្តាលឱ្យសូចនាករ skew កើនឡើងលើសពី 10% ។ ម្យ៉ាងវិញទៀត ទីផ្សារកើនឡើងមានទំនោរជំរុញឱ្យសូចនាករ skew ខាងក្រោម -10% មានន័យថាជម្រើសធ្លាក់ចុះត្រូវបានបញ្ចុះតម្លៃ។
The delta skew bottomed at 8% on Jan. 9, signaling that options traders are pricing similar risks for upside and downside. More importantly, the current level is the lowest since Nov. 8, or since the ការផ្លាស់ប្តូរ FTX.
Even if there’s no appetite for leverage longs using Bitcoin futures, the whales and market makers trading options are getting more comfortable with $17,000 becoming support.
Although there is no evidence that a pump to $18,250 is in the making, at least traders are less risk-averse, according to derivatives data.
ទស្សនៈគំនិតនិងយោបល់ដែលត្រូវបានបង្ហាញនៅទីនេះគឺជាអ្នកនិពន្ធតែម្នាក់ឯងហើយមិនចាំបាច់ឆ្លុះបញ្ចាំងឬតំណាងឱ្យទស្សនៈនិងទស្សនៈរបស់ Cointelegraph ទេ។
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-derivatives-data-suggests-a-btc-price-pump-above-18k-won-t-be-easy