តម្លៃ Bitcoin បន្តធ្លាក់ចុះ ប៉ុន្តែទិន្នន័យនិស្សន្ទវត្ថុបង្ហាញពីការប្រមូលផ្តុំរយៈពេលខ្លីដល់ $25K

It’s possible that many people have already forgotten that Bitcoin’s (BTC អ) price closed 2022 at $16,529 and the recent rebound and rejection at the $25,000 level could raise concern among certain investors. Bears are pushing back at the $25,000 level and there has been multiple failed attempts at the level between Feb. 16 and Feb. 21. Currently, it looks like the $23,500 resistance is continuing to gain strength with every retest. 

Pinpointing the rationale behind Bitcoin’s 45.5% year-to-date gain is not apparent, but part of it comes from the United States Federal Reserve’s inability to curb inflation while raising interest rates to its highest level in 15 years. The unintended consequence is higher government debt repayments and this adds further pressure to the budget deficit.

It’s virtually impossible to predict when the Fed will change its stance, but as the debt to gross domestic product ratio surpasses 128, it should not take longer than 18 months. At some point, the value of the U.S. dollar itself could become endangered due to extreme debt leverage.

On Feb. 23, the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued a joint សេចក្តីថ្លែងការណ៍ encouraging U.S. banks that rely on funding from the crypto sector to prevent liquidity runs by maintaining strong risk management practices. Regulators said the report was spurred by “recent events” in the industry due to increased volatility risks.

សូមក្រឡេកមើលឧបករណ៍វាស់ស្ទង់និស្សន្ទវត្ថុ ដើម្បីយល់កាន់តែច្បាស់អំពីរបៀបដែលពាណិជ្ជករអាជីពត្រូវបានដាក់ក្នុងលក្ខខណ្ឌទីផ្សារបច្ចុប្បន្ន។

Bitcoin margined longs were used to defend the $24,000 level

ទីផ្សាររឹមផ្តល់នូវការយល់ដឹងអំពីរបៀបដែលពាណិជ្ជករអាជីពត្រូវបានដាក់ទីតាំង ព្រោះវាអនុញ្ញាតឱ្យវិនិយោគិនខ្ចីរូបិយប័ណ្ណគ្រីបតូ ដើម្បីប្រើប្រាស់មុខតំណែងរបស់ពួកគេ។

For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy (long) Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only bet against (short) the cryptocurrency. Unlike កិច្ចសន្យានាពេលអនាគតតុល្យភាពរវាងប្រវែងរឹម និងខ្លីមិនតែងតែត្រូវគ្នានោះទេ។

The above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio increased between Feb. 21 and Feb. 23, signaling that professional traders added leverage long positions as Bitcoin price broke below $24,000.

One might argue that the excessive demand for bullish margin positioning seems a desperate move after the failed attempt to break the $25,000 resistance on Feb. 21. However, the unusually high stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio tends to normalize after traders deposit additional collateral after a few days.

Options traders are more confident with downside risks

Traders should also analyze options markets to understand whether the recent rally has caused investors to become more risk-averse. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

សូចនាករប្រៀបធៀបការហៅទូរសព្ទស្រដៀងគ្នា (ទិញ) និងដាក់ (លក់) ជម្រើស ហើយនឹងប្រែជាវិជ្ជមាននៅពេលដែលការភ័យខ្លាចមានជាទូទៅ ពីព្រោះបុព្វលាភជម្រើសនៃការដាក់ការពារគឺខ្ពស់ជាងជម្រើសការហៅហានិភ័យ។

សរុបមក មាត្រដ្ឋាន skew នឹងផ្លាស់ទីលើសពី 10% ប្រសិនបើពាណិជ្ជករភ័យខ្លាចការធ្លាក់តម្លៃ Bitcoin ។ ម៉្យាងវិញទៀត ភាពរំជើបរំជួលទូទៅឆ្លុះបញ្ចាំងពីភាពអវិជ្ជមាន 10% ។

ដែលទាក់ទង: ក្រុមប្រឹក្សាប្រតិបត្តិរបស់ IMF គាំទ្រក្របខ័ណ្ឌគោលនយោបាយគ្រីបតូ រួមទាំងគ្មានគ្រីបតូជាការដេញថ្លៃស្របច្បាប់

Notice that the 25% delta skew shifted slightly negative since Feb. 18 after option traders became more confident and the $23,500 support strengthened. A skew reading at -5% denotes a balanced demand between bullish and bearish option instruments.

Derivatives data paints an unusual combination of excessive margin demand for longs and a neutral risk assessment from options traders. Yet, there is nothing concerning about it as long as the stablecoin/BTC ratio returns to levels below 30 in the coming days.

Considering regulators have been applying enormous pressure on the crypto sector, Bitcoin derivatives are holding up nicely. For example, on Feb. 22, the Bank for International Settlements general manager Agustín Carstens emphasized the need for regulation and risk management in the crypto space. The limited impact of the BIS statement on the price is a bullish sign and it possibly increases the odds of Bitcoin price breaking above $25,000 in the short-term.