Bitcoin ប្រមូលផ្តុំគ្នាបន្ទាប់ពីការដំឡើងអត្រាការប្រាក់របស់ Fed ប៉ុន្តែខ្លាឃ្មុំនៅតែអាចឈ្នះជម្រើស 1.76B ដុល្លារកាលពីថ្ងៃសុក្រផុតកំណត់

របស់ Bitcoin (BTC អ) price has been stuck in a descending channel since July 20 and it is currently heading toward the $20,000 support by the end of July. Adding to this bearish price action, BTC is down 50% year-to-date, while U.S. listed tech stocks, as measured by the Nasdaq-100 index, accumulated a 24% loss.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve tightens its economic policies by raising interest rates and scaling back debt asset purchases, risk assets have reacted negatively. Fed chair Jerome Powell is set to wrap up a two-day meeting on July 27 and market analysts expect a nominal 0.75% interest rate hike.

Tensions in Europe escalate as the Russian state-controlled gas company Gazprom is slated to cut supplies to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline starting on July 27. According to CNBC, the company blames a turbine maintenance issue, but European officials គិត បើមិនដូច្នេះទេ។

Aiding tech stocks’ performance on July 27 was the U.S. Senate approval of the “Chips and Science” bill, which ការផ្ដល់ឱ្យ $52 billion in subsidies backed by debt and taxes for U.S. semiconductor production. An additional $24 billion of credits for the sector is estimated, aiming to boost the research to compete with China.

For these reasons, traders have mixed feelings about the upcoming Fed announcement and the impact of a global crisis on cryptocurrency markets. As long as Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional markets remains high, especially tech stocks, investors will seek protection by moving away from risk-on asset classes such as cryptocurrencies.

Bulls placed their hope on $24,000 and higher

The open interest for the July 29 Bitcoin monthly options expiry is $1.76 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were caught by surprise as BTC failed to break the $24,000 resistance on July 20.

The 1.18 call-to-put ratio reflects the $950 million call (buy) open interest against the $810 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin stands below $23,000, most of the bullish bets will likely become worthless.

For instance, if Bitcoin’s price remains below $23,000 on July 29, bulls will only have $145 million worth of these call (buy) options. This difference happens because there is no use in a right to buy Bitcoin at $23,000 if it trades below that level on July 29 at 8:00 am UTC.

ខ្លាឃ្មុំអាចទទួលបានប្រាក់ចំណេញ 360 លានដុល្លារនៅថ្ងៃសុក្រ

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 29 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

• ចន្លោះពី ៣២.០០០ ដុល្លារទៅ ៤៤.០០០ ដុល្លារ៖ 400 calls (ទិញ) vs. 19,300 puts (sell) ។ លទ្ធផល​សុទ្ធ​ផ្តល់​ចំណូល​ដល់​ខ្លាឃ្មុំ​ចំនួន 360 លាន​ដុល្លារ។
• ចន្លោះពី ៣២.០០០ ដុល្លារទៅ ៤៤.០០០ ដុល្លារ៖ 3,900 ហៅ (ទិញ) ធៀបនឹង 11,800 ដាក់ (លក់) ។ ខ្លាឃ្មុំមានអត្ថប្រយោជន៍ 230 លានដុល្លារ។
• ចន្លោះពី ៣២.០០០ ដុល្លារទៅ ៤៤.០០០ ដុល្លារ៖ 10,300 calls (buy) vs. 8,600 puts (sell). The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
• ចន្លោះពី ៣២.០០០ ដុល្លារទៅ ៤៤.០០០ ដុល្លារ៖ 14,400 calls (buy) vs. 7,100 puts (sell). Bulls have a $175 million advantage.

ការប៉ាន់ប្រមាណតម្លៃឆៅនេះពិចារណាលើជម្រើសនៃការហៅទូរសព្ទដែលប្រើនៅក្នុងការភ្នាល់ដែលមានសុទិដ្ឋិនិយម និងជម្រើសដែលដាក់ទាំងស្រុងក្នុងការជួញដូរអព្យាក្រឹតទៅធ្លាក់ចុះ។ ទោះបីជាយ៉ាងនេះក៏ដោយ ភាពសាមញ្ញហួសហេតុនេះ មិនយកចិត្តទុកដាក់លើយុទ្ធសាស្ត្រវិនិយោគដែលស្មុគស្មាញជាងនេះទេ។

ជាឧទាហរណ៍ ពាណិជ្ជករអាចលក់ជម្រើសការហៅចេញដោយមានប្រសិទ្ធភាពទទួលបានផលប៉ះពាល់អវិជ្ជមានចំពោះ Bitcoin ខាងលើតម្លៃជាក់លាក់មួយ ប៉ុន្តែជាអកុសល វាមិនមានវិធីងាយស្រួលក្នុងការប៉ាន់ស្មានឥទ្ធិពលនេះទេ។

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $20,000 on July 29 to secure a $360 million profit. On the other hand, bulls can avoid a loss by pushing BTC above $22,000, balancing the valid bets from both sides. Bulls seem heavily vested to put their losses behind and start August with a clean sheet, but it could still go either way.

ទស្សនៈនិងយោបល់ដែលបានបង្ហាញនៅទីនេះគ្រាន់តែជាទស្សនៈរបស់ព្រះ អ្នក​និពន្ធ ហើយមិនចាំបាច់ឆ្លុះបញ្ចាំងពីទស្សនៈរបស់កូរីណែលត្រាហ្វទេ។ រាល់ការវិនិយោគនិងការធ្វើពាណិជ្ជកម្មទាក់ទងនឹងហានិភ័យ។ អ្នកគួរតែធ្វើការស្រាវជ្រាវដោយខ្លួនឯងនៅពេលធ្វើការសម្រេចចិត្ត។