ស្ងប់ស្ងាត់មុនពេលព្យុះ? ភាពប្រែប្រួល Bitcoin នៅកម្រិតទាបជាប្រវត្តិសាស្ត្រ

Data shows the Bitcoin 7-day volatility has plunged down recently to pretty low values. Here’s what has historically happened following instances of such a trend.

Bitcoin 7-Day Volatility Has Declined To Just 1.6% In The Past Week

នេះបើយោងតាមរបាយការណ៍ប្រចាំសប្តាហ៍ចុងក្រោយពី ស្រាវជ្រាវ Arcane, the recent sideways trend in the BTC price has lead to the volatility dropping down to very low values.

"ភាពប្រែប្រួល” is an indicator that measures how the daily returns of Bitcoin have deviated from the average during a specific period.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day and 30-day versions of the metric for BTC over the last year:

The 7-day value of the indicator seems to have gone down in recent days | Source: ការធ្វើបច្ចុប្បន្នភាពប្រចាំសប្តាហ៍របស់ Arcane Research - សប្តាហ៍ទី 39, 2022

As you can see in the above graph, the 7-day Bitcoin volatility has plummeted down over the past week or so.

The metric’s value is now only 1.6%, a very low level that has only been seen a few times during the last twelve months. The 30-day volatility, though, has still stayed up recently at about 3.4%.

The reason behind such low weekly values of the indicator is the sideways consolidation between the $19k and $20k levels that the crypto’s price has been stuck in lately.

Such low 7-day volatility values have usually been succeeded by significant surges in the metric, as noted by the report.

This happens because leverage easily builds up during these periods. High leverage markets are highly volatile since any sudden price moves can liquidate large amounts, which further amplifies the price change.

Since low volatility periods obviously don’t have any significant price spikes, leverage can go unflushed and thus pile up.

As the Bitcoin 7-day volatility has been very low recently, this kind of buildup is again expected to take place in the market. And indeed, the BTC-denominated perpetual futures បើកចំណាប់អារម្មណ៍ has shot up and is sitting at an all-time high right now, supporting the idea of the market being overleveraged:

Looks like the value of the metric has been climbing up recently | Source: ការធ្វើបច្ចុប្បន្នភាពប្រចាំសប្តាហ៍របស់ Arcane Research - សប្តាហ៍ទី 39, 2022

តម្លៃ BTC

នៅពេលសរសេរ។ តម្លៃរបស់ Bitcoin អណ្តែតនៅជុំវិញ $20.1k កើនឡើង 3% ក្នុងសប្តាហ៍មុន។ ក្នុងរយៈពេលមួយខែកន្លងមកនេះ គ្រីបតូបានកើនឡើង 1% នៅក្នុងតម្លៃ។

តារាងខាងក្រោមបង្ហាញពីនិន្នាការតម្លៃកាក់ក្នុងរយៈពេលប្រាំថ្ងៃចុងក្រោយនេះ។

The value of the crypto has been moving sideways since the surge a couple of days back | Source: BTCUSD ស្តីពី TradingView

រូបភាពពិសេសពី Kanchanara នៅលើ Unsplash.com តារាងពី TradingView.com, Arcane Research