អ្នកវិភាគម៉ាក្រូ Fidelity ធ្វើការព្យាករណ៍រយៈពេលវែង Bitcoin ដោយប្រើគំរូជួញដូរថ្មី។

Fidelity’s director of global macro Jurrien Timmer is updating his long-term forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC) as the leading crypto asset by market cap struggles near the $30,000 mark.

ក្នុងរយៈពេលវែង ខ្សែ​ស្រ​ឡាយ, Timmer makes reference to quant analyst PlanB’s once popular stock-to-flow model (S2F), which attempted to predict the price of Bitcoin based on supply shocks stemming from BTC halvings.

Timmer presents an S2F-inspired supply model, plus two more models that track the adoption rates of the internet and mobile phones.

According to Timmer’s modified supply model, Bitcoin could be somewhere around $63,778 by 2025, about a year after the next BTC halving.

“The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model has been (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F’s projections for this halving cycle.”

Timmer says that based on the adoption of mobile phones, Bitcoin could explode in value and trade at $144,753 by 2025. But if Bitcoin follows the adoption rate of the internet, Timmer’s model suggests BTC has topped out and could trade at $47,702 in three years.

“Assuming the mobile phone curve is a more viable analog, its curve suggests a strongly growing network for Bitcoin in the years ahead, but the more asymptotic internet curve raises the possibility that perhaps Bitcoin’s growth curve is more mature than my models have assumed…

I remain bullish on Bitcoin as an aspiring store of value in a world of ongoing financial repression, but the above exercise is a good reminder that we should always revisit our assumptions, especially when the price action deviates from expectations.”

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ការបដិសេធ: មតិដែលបានសម្តែងនៅឌឹដហូមដស៍មិនមែនជាដំបូន្មានវិនិយោគទេ។ វិនិយោគិនគួរតែប្រឹងប្រែងដោយយកចិត្តទុកដាក់មុនពេលធ្វើការវិនិយោគដែលមានហានិភ័យខ្ពស់នៅក្នុង Bitcoin, cryptocurrency ឬទ្រព្យសម្បត្តិឌីជីថល។ សូមណែនាំថាការផ្ទេរនិងការធ្វើពាណិជ្ជកម្មរបស់អ្នកគឺជាហានិភ័យផ្ទាល់របស់អ្នកហើយការបាត់បង់ណាមួយដែលអ្នកអាចទទួលរងគឺជាទំនួលខុសត្រូវរបស់អ្នក។ Daily Hodl មិនបានផ្តល់អនុសាសន៍ឱ្យទិញឬលក់រូបិយប័ណ្ណគ្រីបថលឬទ្រព្យសម្បត្តិឌីជីថលទេហើយក៏មិនមែនជាអ្នកផ្តល់ប្រឹក្សាផ្នែកវិនិយោគផងដែរ។ សូមកត់សម្គាល់ថាឌឹដេវហូដចូលរួមក្នុងទីផ្សារសម្ព័ន្ធ។

រូបភាពលក្ខណៈពិសេស: Shutterstock / Larich