'វាជា Deja Vu' - ពាណិជ្ជកររឿងព្រេងនិទានដែលបានហៅបញ្ហាគាំង Bitcoin របស់ 2018 មានការព្យាករណ៍យ៉ាងខ្លាំងថាជាតម្លៃនៃ Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Solana, Cardano និង Dogecoin Sink

Bitcoin
BTC អ
and many other cryptocurrencies keep chugging downhill.

This week the bតម្លៃ itcoin plunged to a little over $38,000 before rebounding this morning. The price of ethereum and solana dipped a few basis points, XRP 15%, cardano 5%. Dogecoin and BNB are slightly up.

Meanwhile, renowned trader Peter Brandt—who earned his name in the crypto space by calling some of bitcoin’s biggest moves, including its 80% decline in 2018—warns crypto investors of a looming dot-com-like crash.

នៅក្នុងការថ្មីមួយ Tweet, one of the world’s most respected “chartists” highlighted “structural similarities” in the Nasdaq between today and the eve of the dot-com crash and called it “deja vu all over again”.

Brandt believes, therefore, that bitcoin may be in for a major correction and its price could plunge to $27,000 ក្នុងរយៈពេលខ្លី។

[Ed កំណត់សម្គាល់៖ ការវិនិយោគលើគ្រីបតូគឺមានការរំពឹងទុកខ្ពស់ ហើយទីផ្សារគឺមិនមានការគ្រប់គ្រងយ៉ាងទូលំទូលាយ។ អ្នកណាម្នាក់ដែលគិតថាវាគួរតែរៀបចំខ្លួនដើម្បីបាត់បង់ការវិនិយោគរបស់ពួកគេទាំងស្រុង។]

ពង្រីកចេញ

What do stocks have to do with bitcoin and crypto as a whole?

For starters, major cryptos are highly correlated to the stock market. They also have a high បែតា to stocks. That means crypto, in effect, amplifies moves in stocks. If stocks soar, cryptos soar higher. And vice versa. If stocks tumble, crypto goes into free fall.

Not only that, both the correlation and beta have significantly increased since the beginning of the pandemic. In របាយការណ៍ខែមករា, the IMF wrote:

"ចំពេលមានការអនុម័តកាន់តែច្រើន ការជាប់ទាក់ទងគ្នានៃទ្រព្យសកម្មគ្រីបតូជាមួយនឹងការកាន់កាប់បែបប្រពៃណីដូចជាភាគហ៊ុនបានកើនឡើងយ៉ាងខ្លាំង ដែលកំណត់អត្ថប្រយោជន៍នៃការធ្វើពិពិធកម្មហានិភ័យដែលគេយល់ឃើញរបស់ពួកគេ និងបង្កើនហានិភ័យនៃការឆ្លងនៅទូទាំងទីផ្សារហិរញ្ញវត្ថុ។"

Meanwhile, Alvin Tan of DataDrivenInvestor, points out that bitcoin’s “reactivity” to the stocks market today is “unprecedented” compared to its pre-pandemic price action.

“It is immediately obvious that Bitcoin’s stock market beta has turned persistently higher since the onset of the pandemic, implying that it has become more influenced by stock market fluctuations and in the same direction. The beta has remained near +1 or more pretty much since early 2021, and the persistence of this positive relationship is unprecedented in the pre-pandemic period,” he wrote in a Medium post.

That’s the S&P 500. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is even more correlated to crypto. In fact, as Coindesk recently reported, bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq today is the highest on record.

Looking ahead—will we see “decorrelation”?

If this relationship persists and central banks make good on their pledges to raise rates to rein in inflation, the Nasdaq and, by extension, major cryptos might face strong headwinds this year.

However, William Clemente, lead analyst at mining firm Blockware, thinks this correlation is temporary. And as bitcoin matures, its price action will diverge from riskier tech stocks. In fact, he thinks stocks and bitcoin will “break up” within a year.

"[ខ្ញុំ] នឹងបន្តកត់ត្រា ហើយនិយាយថាខ្ញុំគិតថាយើងឃើញការជាប់ទាក់ទងគ្នារវាង bitcoin និងភាគហ៊ុនក្នុងរយៈពេល 12 ខែបន្ទាប់... "

If that happened, he added, it would be “quite powerful.”

នាំមុខនិន្នាការគ្រីបតូជាមួយ ទន្ទឹមនឹងនេះ នៅក្នុងទីផ្សារ…

ជារៀងរាល់ថ្ងៃ ខ្ញុំបញ្ចេញរឿងមួយដែលពន្យល់ពីអ្វីដែលជំរុញទីផ្សារគ្រីបតូ។ ចុះឈ្មោះនៅទីនេះ ដើម្បីទទួលបានការវិភាគរបស់ខ្ញុំ និងការជ្រើសរើសគ្រីបតូនៅក្នុងប្រអប់សំបុត្ររបស់អ្នក។