តម្លៃនៃ Bitcoin និង Ethereum នៅតែមានស្ថេរភាព

After rising last week, the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum appears to be stable in recent days. 

This was quite significant, as the previous attempt to rise had instead failed within a few days. 

The failed attempt in April for the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Just before mid-March, the price of Bitcoin was just under $25,000. 

But as of 17 March, it not only jumped suddenly above $25,000, but has remained there practically until now, as it has fallen below that threshold only very briefly, and by a small margin. 

In other words, with the rise in mid-March the bullish phase of the beginning of the year came to an end, and a long period of lateralization opened that may still be ongoing. 

However, after Ethereum’s Sepolia update of 12 April an initial attempt was made to get back above $30,000 as well. That attempt failed in less than ten days, sending the price back into the lateralization phase above $25,000. 

In fact, the mid-April attempt had been triggered by Ethereum, whose price just after the Sepolia update had soared from $1,920 up to over $2,100, only to fall back below $1,900 after a good ten days. 

Indeed, the failure of the April attempt to break above $2,000 for ETH, and $30,000 for BTC, was later followed by a period of decline that ended only in mid-June, or nearly two months later. 

The rebound at the end of June

In other words, in the second half of March prices rebounded to new annual highs, which in turn were surpassed by new highs touched at the turn of mid-April, or just under a month later. 

It is possible that the levels touched in mid-April, thanks to the price consequences of the Sepolia update, were not sustainable in the short term, and so after a perhaps excessive rise, a period of nearly two months of descent was triggered, ending with a seemingly excessive descent just before mid-June. 

Taking 16 March as a reference, Bitcoin‘s price first broke through the $25,000 wall to $28,000, and then tried an initial assault on the $30,000 wall that was successful for only a scant ten days. 

At that point, it returned to the $25,000 level, which is the medium-term support level, but only to attempt a second breakthrough of the $30,000 mark that is still in progress. 

As for Ethereum, first the $1,650 wall was knocked down, bringing ETH’s price to around $1,800, and then it tried an assault on the $2,000 wall that was successful for only a scant 10 days. 

At that point, it first returned just above $1,800, and then fell as low as $1,650. It was only then that it rebounded, but this time not to $2,000. In fact, these days it is trying to break above $1,900, but without succeeding.

The differences between the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum

For now, the most obvious difference seems to be that the late June rise has led Bitcoin’s price to make new yearly highs above $31,000, while ETH’s price has not even approached the $2,100 of mid-April. 

While ETH had briefly outperformed BTC in mid-April, thanks precisely to Ethereum’s Sepolia upgrade, it is now BTC that is outperforming ETH. 

Taking as reference the prices of 16 March, Bitcoin is currently at +24%, while Ethereum is only at +14%. 

Furthermore, taking the April peak as a reference instead, right now BTC is only at -2%, while ETH is at -11%. 

The difference lies entirely in the fact that, after the April peaks, Bitcoin’s price fell gradually by 20% until mid-June, while Ethereum’s fell by 24% with a major surge just before the middle of the month.

In addition, the subsequent rebound was much firmer for BTC, which rose 22%, and more limited for ETH, which rose only 16%. 

Therefore, while in April it was Ethereum that was driving the crypto market, it is now Bitcoin again, just as it was at the beginning of the year. 

ភាពលេចធ្លោរបស់ Bitcoin

This dynamic is best observed by analyzing the trend of Bitcoin’s dominance over time. 

Dominance is the percentage of the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies occupied by Bitcoin’s capitalization. 

It is a very interesting figure because it is really not very volatile, since crypto markets often slavishly follow the price trend of BTC. 

According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin’s dominance is currently over 50%. 

However, at the beginning of the year it was at 40%, and by November 2022 it had even dropped below 38%. 

It is enough to mention that during the first part of the last big bullrun, in early 2021, it had risen as high as 72%, and then began a sharp and rapid decline between April and May, when the first phase of Bitcoin’s price bullrun came to a halt, and that of the altcoins began instead. 

Not coincidentally, it fell as much as 40% in May 2021, and there it remained basically until mid-January 2023, albeit with several ups and downs. 

Starting on 17 March, it began to move away from that 40%, moving first to 45%, and then to 47% at the end of April, despite the fact that ETH outperformed BTC that month. 

It rose again thereafter, especially starting just before mid-June, when ETH’s price fell more than BTC’s in percentage terms. 

This shows that the crypto market in 2023 is dominated by Bitcoin for now, although for a brief period in April Ethereum outperformed it. 

The lateralization phase

The question on everyone’s mind now is whether the recent rebound may be the end of the long period of lateralization that began on 17 March, or whether it is merely the second failed attempt to stay above $30,000. 

Unfortunately, in recent days Bitcoin has shown no signs of being strongly positioned above $30,000, with several descents just below this figure. But they have all been short descents, and of very small magnitude. 

However, this is not enough to say that it will remain above this threshold for much longer, that is, that what used to be resistance has now turned into support. 

For now, it has only been more or less consistently above $30,000 for five days, so it could also go back below at any moment. 

Certainly the overall situation is not helping, so much so that, for example, the price of gold is nowhere near the highs of 2023, as is the price of BTC. 

To be able to declare the end of the lateralization, a further effort would be required, with the $32,000 wall being broken down and perhaps even the new $35,000 threshold being approached.