បញ្ជីការផ្តោតការយកចិត្តទុកដាក់ដែលខ្ញុំនៅតែចូលចិត្ត

The Focus List Stocks: Long Model Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 by 35% in 2021. This report looks at a Focus List Long stock that outperformed in 2021 and is positioned to outperform again in 2022.

HCA Healthcare (HCA) outperformed in 2021 and still presents quality risk/reward.

Focus List Stocks ដំណើរការនៅឆ្នាំ 2021

ភាគហ៊ុនបញ្ជីផ្តោត៖ ផលប័ត្រគំរូវែងមាន "ល្អបំផុតនៃគំនិតល្អបំផុត" នៃគំនិតវែងរបស់ខ្ញុំ ហើយប្រើប្រាស់ទិន្នន័យមូលដ្ឋានដ៏ប្រសើរ ដែលផ្តល់ប្រភពអាល់ហ្វាថ្មី។

ភាគហ៊ុនបញ្ជីផ្តោត៖ ផលប័ត្រគំរូវែងបានត្រលប់មកវិញ[1],[2] ជាមធ្យម 58% ក្នុងឆ្នាំ 2021 ធៀបនឹង 23% សម្រាប់ S&P 500 ក្នុងរូបភាពទី 1។

រូបភាពទី 1៖ ភាគហ៊ុនបញ្ជីផ្តោត៖ ការអនុវត្តផលប័ត្រគំរូវែង ចាប់ពីពេលបញ្ចប់ 4Q20 ដល់ 4Q21

Because my firm’s Focus List Stocks: Long Model Portfolio represents the best of the best picks, not all Long Ideas make the Model Portfolio. I published 66 Long Ideas in 2021 but added just six of them to the Focus List Stocks: Long Model Portfolio during the year. Currently, the Focus List Stocks: Long Model Portfolio has 39 stocks.

រូបភាពទី 2 បង្ហាញពីការវិភាគលម្អិតបន្ថែមទៀតនៃដំណើរការរបស់ Model Portfolio ដែលរួមបញ្ចូលភាគហ៊ុនទាំងអស់ដែលមាននៅក្នុង Model Portfolio នៅពេលណាមួយក្នុងឆ្នាំ 2021។

រូបភាពទី 2៖ ការអនុវត្តភាគហ៊ុននៅក្នុងបញ្ជីផ្តោតសំខាន់៖ ផលប័ត្រគំរូវែងក្នុងឆ្នាំ 2021

ការអនុវត្តរួមបញ្ចូលទាំងការអនុវត្តនៃភាគហ៊ុនបច្ចុប្បន្ននៅក្នុង Focus List Stocks: Long Model Portfolio ក៏ដូចជាអ្វីដែលបានដកចេញក្នុងកំឡុងឆ្នាំ ដែលនេះជាមូលហេតុដែលចំនួនស្តុកនៅក្នុងរូបភាពទី 2 (45) គឺខ្ពស់ជាងចំនួនស្តុកបច្ចុប្បន្ននៅក្នុង Model ផលប័ត្រ (39) ។

Outperforming Focus List Stock: HCA Healthcare (HCA): Up 56% vs. S&P 500 Up 27% in 2021

I added HCA Healthcare to the Focus List Stocks: Long Model Portfolio in July 2020, and the stock outperformed the S&P 500 by 29% in 2021. I expect HCA Healthcare will continue to outperform the market as the company meets the long-term healthcare demands of an aging population.

Main Reason for Outperformance: Recovering Demand for Elective Procedures: Demand for more routine procedures began to recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. Outpatient surgeries over the TTM are 13% above 2020 levels and inpatient surgeries are 1% higher over the same time. The partial recovery in surgeries drove the firm’s same-facility revenue higher year-over-year (YoY) in all categories in 3Q21.

Despite pandemic-related challenges and rising labor costs, HCA Healthcare continues to improve its profitability. The company’s NOPAT margin improved from 12% in 2019 before the pandemic to 14% over the TTM. HCA Healthcare’s invested capital turns also improved from 1.4 to 1.5 over the same time. Rising NOPAT margin and improved invested capital turns drive the firm’s ROIC higher from 16% in 2019 to 21% over the TTM.

Longer term, HCA Healthcare has improved its ROIC from 11% in 2016 to an industry-leading 21%, which is twice the ROIC of Universal Health Services (UHS), its closest peer, over the TTM. Figure 3 compares HCA Healthcare’s ROIC to its peers’, including Universal Health Services, Encompass Health Corp (EHC), Select Medical Holdings Corp (SEM), and Community Health Systems (CYH).

Figure 3: HCA Healthcare’s ROIC Vs. Peers

Why HCA Healthcare Has Attractive Risk/Reward: Market-Leading Scale Meets Rising Demand: HCA Healthcare is the largest for-profit hospital system in the U.S. and ranks first or second in 27 of 37 of its markets. HCA Healthcare’s strong local market presence combined with the national reach and training capabilities of the firm’s human resources position the firm to keep its facilities staffed in a very tight labor market. The ability to meet rising demand efficiently will be key to the healthcare sector’s profitability in coming years.

HCA Healthcare’s scale also increases the company’s quality of care since the firm can leverage patient data across its network. For example, HCA Healthcare’s vast patient database played an active role in accelerating the pace of developing COVID treatments. The firm is positioned to continue to leverage data-driven solutions to enhance the level of its patient care.

My original thesis posited that the firm’s volumes would recover to pre-pandemic levels. While demand for surgeries strengthened in 2021, outpatient surgeries over the TTM remain 1% below 2019 levels, and inpatient surgeries are 7% lower over the same time. The U.S. population continues to age, which means demand for healthcare is growing structurally. COVID caused an artificial interruption to the delivery of healthcare services, but there is no sign of a hit to demand. At some point the world will learn to live with COVID and, when it does, HCA Healthcare will have a backlog of procedures in addition to structural demand growth due to an aging population.

HCA Healthcare’s scale also enables the firm to profitably expand its healthcare offerings and adapt to an evolving industry. For example, the company recently diversified its operations beyond traditional hospitals to incorporate outpatient centers and telemedicine. The firm’s strong physical presence, large database, and digital capabilities equip it to serve a variety of patient needs.

Despite Approaching All-Time Highs, HCA Is Still Priced for Permanent Profit Decline: HCA Healthcare’s price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio is 0.6. This ratio implies that the market expects HCA Healthcare’s profits will permanently decline by 40%.

Below, I use my reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model to analyze the expectations for future growth in cash flows baked into a couple of stock price scenarios for HCA Healthcare.

In the first scenario, I assume HCA Healthcare’s:

• NOPAT margin falls to 12% (three-year average vs. 14% TTM) from 2021 through 2030, and
• revenue falls at a <1% CAGR from 2021 to 2030 (vs. consensus CAGR of 7% from 2021 – 2023).

In this scenario, HCA Healthcare’s NOPAT falls by <1% compounded annually over the next decade and the stock is worth $250/share today – equal to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. For reference, HCA Healthcare grew NOPAT by 6% compounded annually from 2010 to 2020. 

Shares Could Reach $405 or Higher: If I assume HCA Healthcare’s:

• NOPAT margin falls to 12%, (three-year average vs 14% TTM) from 2021 through 2030, and
• revenue grows at an 8% CAGR from 2021 – 2023 (same as consensus), and
• revenue grows at a 3% CAGR from 2024 – 2030 (below 10-year average CAGR of 5%), then

the stock is worth $405/share today – 62% above the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, HCA Healthcare grows NOPAT 5% compounded annually over the next decade.

Should HCA Healthcare grow profits closer to historical levels, the upside in the stock is even greater.

Figure 4: HCA Healthcare’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios

ការលាតត្រដាងបង្ហាញ: លោក David គ្រូបង្វឹក, Kyle Guske II និងលោក Matt Shuler មិនទទួលបានសំណងណាមួយដើម្បីសរសេរអំពីភាគហ៊ុនជាក់លាក់វិស័យរចនាប័ទ្មឬប្រធានបទណាមួយឡើយ។

[1] ការសម្តែងតំណាងឱ្យការអនុវត្តតម្លៃនៃភាគហ៊ុននីមួយៗក្នុងអំឡុងពេលដែលវាស្ថិតនៅក្នុងបញ្ជីផ្តោតសំខាន់: ផលប័ត្រគំរូវែងក្នុងឆ្នាំ 2021។ សម្រាប់ភាគហ៊ុនដែលបានដកចេញពីបញ្ជីផ្តោតនៅឆ្នាំ 2021 ការអនុវត្តត្រូវបានវាស់ពីដើមឆ្នាំ 2021 តាមរយៈ កាល​បរិច្ឆេទ​ដែល​ធីក​ត្រូវ​បាន​យក​ចេញ​ពី​បញ្ជី​ផ្ដោត។ សម្រាប់ភាគហ៊ុនដែលបានបន្ថែមទៅក្នុងបញ្ជីផ្តោតនៅឆ្នាំ 2021 ការអនុវត្តត្រូវបានវាស់វែងចាប់ពីកាលបរិច្ឆេទដែលសំបុត្រត្រូវបានបន្ថែមទៅក្នុងបញ្ជីផ្តោតរហូតដល់ថ្ងៃទី 31 ខែធ្នូ ឆ្នាំ 2021។

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