ការវិភាគសក្តានុពលនៃកំណើនភាគលាភរបស់ក្រុមហ៊ុន Penske Automotive Group

ប្រមូលពីការជ្រើសរើសរបស់ខែធ្នូ

On a price return basis, the Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio (5.3%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+4.4%) by 0.9% from December 29, 2022 through January 25, 2023. On a total return basis, the Model Portfolio (+5.4%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+4.4%) by 1.0% over the same time. The best performing stock was up 12%. Overall, 21 out of the 30 Dividend Growth Stocks outperformed the S&P 500 from December 29, 2022 through January 25, 2023.

វិធីសាស្រ្តសម្រាប់ផលប័ត្រគំរូនេះធ្វើត្រាប់តាមរចនាប័ទ្ម "All Cap Blend" ដោយផ្តោតលើកំណើនភាគលាភ។ ភាគហ៊ុនដែលបានជ្រើសរើសទទួលបានចំណាត់ថ្នាក់ដ៏គួរឱ្យទាក់ទាញ ឬទាក់ទាញខ្លាំង បង្កើតលំហូរសាច់ប្រាក់ដោយឥតគិតថ្លៃវិជ្ជមាន (FCF) និងប្រាក់ចំណូលសេដ្ឋកិច្ច ផ្តល់ទិន្នផលភាគលាភបច្ចុប្បន្ន> 1% និងមានកំណត់ត្រាតាមដាន 5+ ឆ្នាំនៃកំណើនភាគលាភជាប់ៗគ្នា។ ផលប័ត្រគំរូនេះត្រូវបានរចនាឡើងសម្រាប់វិនិយោគិនដែលផ្តោតលើការឡើងថ្លៃដើមទុនរយៈពេលវែងជាងប្រាក់ចំណូលបច្ចុប្បន្ន ប៉ុន្តែនៅតែពេញចិត្តចំពោះអំណាចនៃភាគលាភ ជាពិសេសការកើនឡើងភាគលាភ។

January’s Featured Stock: Penske Automotive Group
ភីហ្សា។

Penske Automotive Group (PAG) is the featured stock from January’s Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio.

Penske Automotive has grown revenue by 8% compounded annually and net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) by 17% compounded annually since 2012. The company’s NOPAT margin rose from 3% in 2012 to 6% over the trailing-twelve-months (TTM), while return on invested capital (ROIC) rose from 5% to 12% over the same time.

Figure 1: Penske Automotive’s Revenue and NOPAT Since 2012

Steady Dividend Growth Supported by FCF

Penske Automotive has increased its dividend from $1.26/share in 2017 to $2.12/share over the TTM, or 12% compounded annually. The current quarterly dividend of $0.53/share, when annualized, equals $2.12/share and provides a 1.8% dividend yield.

More importantly, Penske Automotive’s free cash flow (FCF) easily exceeds the company’s growing dividend payments. From 2018-2021, Penske’s cumulative $3.3 billion (19% of enterprise value) in FCF is 7x the $463 million paid out in dividends, per Figure 2. Over the TTM, Penske has generated $465 million in FCF and paid out $150 million in dividends.

Figure 2: Free Cash Flow Vs. Dividend Payments

ក្រុមហ៊ុនដែលមាន FCF លើសពីការទូទាត់ភាគលាភផ្តល់នូវឱកាសកំណើនភាគលាភដែលមានគុណភាពខ្ពស់ជាងមុន។ ម៉្យាងវិញទៀត ភាគលាភដែលលើសពី FCF មិនអាចជឿទុកចិត្តបានថានឹងកើនឡើង ឬសូម្បីតែត្រូវបានរក្សាទុក។

Penske Has Upside Potential

Despite Penske’s profits being very strong recently, its current stock price implies a significant decline in profits. At its current price of $128/share, PAG has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.6. This means the market expects Penske Automotive’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 40%. This expectation seems overly pessimistic for a company that has grown NOPAT by 17% compounded annually since 2012.

Even if Penske’s NOPAT margin falls to 4% (equal to five-year average vs. 6% over the TTM) and the company grows revenue by just 4% compounded annually for the next 10 years, the stock would be worth $162/share today – a 27% upside. In this scenario, Penske’s NOPAT would grow less than 1% compounded annually over the next decade. សូមមើលគណិតវិទ្យានៅពីក្រោយសេណារីយ៉ូ DCF បញ្ច្រាស.

Should the company grow NOPAT more in line with historical growth rates, the stock has even more upside. Add in Penske’s 1.8% dividend yield and a history of dividend growth, and it’s clear why this stock is in January’s Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio.

ព័ត៌មានលម្អិតសំខាន់ៗត្រូវបានរកឃើញនៅក្នុងឯកសារហិរញ្ញវត្ថុដោយបច្ចេកវិទ្យារ៉ូបូត - វិភាគរបស់ក្រុមហ៊ុនខ្ញុំ

Below are specific adjustments I made based on Robo-Analyst findings in Penske Automotive’s 10-Ks and 10-Qs:

របាយការណ៍ប្រាក់ចំណូល៖ ខ្ញុំបានធ្វើការកែតម្រូវចំនួន 332 លានដុល្លារ ជាមួយនឹងឥទ្ធិពលសុទ្ធនៃការដកចេញ 221 លានដុល្លារនៅក្នុងការចំណាយដែលមិនដំណើរការ (1% នៃប្រាក់ចំណូល)។

Balance Sheet: I made $4.7 billion in adjustments to calculate invested capital with a net increase of $4.7 billion. The most notable adjustment was $863 million (9% of reported net assets) in operating leases.

Valuation: I made $8.4 billion in adjustments, all of which decrease shareholder value. Apart from total debt, the most notable adjustment to shareholder value was $1.1 billion in deferred tax liabilities. This adjustment represents 12% of Penske Automotive’s market value.

ការបង្ហាញ៖ David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, និង Italo Mendonça មិនទទួលបានសំណងក្នុងការសរសេរអំពីភាគហ៊ុន រចនាប័ទ្ម ឬប្រធានបទជាក់លាក់ណាមួយឡើយ។