អ្នកស្រាវជ្រាវព្រមានថា ចិនប្រឈមមុខនឹងរលកយក្សស៊ូណាមិ ប្រសិនបើគេបោះបង់គោលនយោបាយសូន្យ-Covid ដ៏ចម្រូងចម្រាស

Topline

China faces an omicron “tsunami” that could overwhelm hospitals and kill more than 1 million people if it abandons its “zero-Covid” strategy, according to a new study published in ឱសថធម្មជាតិ on Tuesday, as officials double down on the controversial policy despite worsening social and economic damages of such strict lockdowns.

ការពិតសំខាន់

Despite more than 90% of China’s population over 3 years of age being fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and around 54% having received a booster shot, an estimated 1.55 million people could die from the disease within six months if the country drops its policy of eliminating infections through strict lockdowns, according to the peer reviewed modeling study.

Leaving omicron unchecked, the model predicts a major Covid-19 wave between May and July with the potential to cause as many as 5.1 million hospital admissions and 2.7 million ICU admissions up to September 2022, with peak ICU demand nearly 16 times existing capacity.

The vast majority of deaths—nearly three quarters—would be among unvaccinated people aged 60 years old and up, the researchers found, primarily due to the significant គម្លាត in vaccination coverage among China’s elderly population.

ប្រទេសចិនមាន រាយការណ៍ fewer than 15,000 Covid-19 deaths since the pandemic began—including a full ឆ្នាំ without a single death, though experts សំណួរ the reliability of China’s data—in pursuit of zero-Covid, relying on strict lockdowns, quarantines and testing to quash outbreaks.

While this approach may have worked in the past, it is much harder to implement with a variant as transmissible as omicron and the researchers said it is “questionable… whether and for how long” China can continue to follow a zero-Covid policy.

តង់ហ្សង់។

The researchers modeled several strategies China might use to move away from zero Covid and learn to live with the virus, including widespread use of recently-បានអនុម័ត antivirals, enhanced testing, promoting booster doses and increasing vaccine coverage among the elderly. When lifting the restrictions put in place under zero-Covid, no strategy was sufficient on its own to completely mitigate the risk of omicron and no method was able to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed or bring deaths down in line with the number killed by the flu each year. Increasing vaccination among the elderly and widespread use of antivirals should be priorities for future policy, the researchers said. In the long-term, policies should focus on improving ventilation, strengthening critical care capacity and developing highly efficacious vaccines, they added.

សាវតាសំខាន់

China is one of the few places left in the world still pursuing a “zero-Covid” or “dynamic zero” approach to the pandemic. Compatriots like Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and តៃវ៉ាន់ have abandoned the policy and acknowledged they cannot completely contain the virus and the fervent pursuit of the policy was a គ្រោះមហន្តរាយ during an outbreak in Hong Kong. In China, Beijing’s stringent adherence has stoked ការមិនសប្បាយចិត្ត and unrest among the millions locked down to prevent the spread of coronavirus, notably in Shanghai and Beijing. There is little end in sight and despite food shortages, ការចោទប្រកាន់ of inhumane treatment and signs of an សេដ្ឋកិច្ច downturn following weeks of lockdown in major cities, President Xi Jinping បណ្តារដ្ឋ officials will “unswervingly adhere” to the policy.

អានបន្ថែម

Once a zero-Covid poster child, Taiwan learns to live with the virus (អាណាព្យាបាល)

The cost of China’s zero-Covid lockdown (អេហ្វធី)

លោក ស៊ី ជីនពីង វាយលុក "អ្នកសង្ស័យ" នៅពេលដែលគាត់បន្ថយទ្វេដងលើគោលនយោបាយសូន្យ-Covid របស់ចិន (អាណាព្យាបាល)

ការធានារ៉ាប់រងពេញលេញនិងការធ្វើបច្ចុប្បន្នភាពផ្ទាល់លើវីរុសកូរ៉ូណាវ៉ាវី