Elon Musk is worried about the economy.
For several months now, the richest man in the world បានបន្ត to sound the alarm, warning that the economy risks a deep ការធ្លាក់ចុះសេដ្ឋកិច្ច if the central bank’s គោលនយោបាយរូបិយវត្ថុ stays on course.
ខណៈពេលដែល បម្រុងសហព័ន្ធ is holding its last monetary meeting of the year in the coming days, the serial entrepreneur has just made a new prediction. And like his past predictions, this one is very alarming.
ធនាគារកណ្តាលសហព័ន្ធបានដំឡើងអត្រាការប្រាក់យ៉ាងខ្លាំងក្នុងរយៈពេលប៉ុន្មានខែថ្មីៗនេះ ដោយយកអត្រាគោលពីស្ទើរតែសូន្យក្នុងអំឡុងពេលជំងឺរាតត្បាតដល់ចន្លោះពី 3.75% និង 4% ក្នុងកិច្ចខិតខំប្រឹងប្រែងដើម្បីប្រយុទ្ធប្រឆាំងនឹង អតិផរណា , which is at its highest in 40 years. But many economists say that this aggressive monetary policy will plunge the economy into a recession.
‘The Recession Will Be Greatly Amplified’ The central bank holds a two-day meeting on December 13 and 14. The policymakers are expected to raise rates by 50 basis points, following four consecutive 75 basis-point hikes.
In addition, the Fed will publish its first quarterly forecasts since September. This will provide clues into where the central bank sees the U.S. economy headed over the next few years.
The CME Group’s FedWatch continues to suggest that next week’s announcement will be a 50 ចំណុចមូលដ្ឋាន rate increase, taking the Fed Funds benchmark to between 4.25% and 4.5%, with a target rate between 5% and 5.25% by the spring, already largely reflected in futures trading.
Musk believes that if the Fed announces a rate hike as expected, it would be a huge mistake. The decision would plunge the economy into an even more severe recession than what is already expected, he has just warned.
“If the Fed raises rates again next week, the recession will be greatly amplified,” the billionaire said on December 9, in a message posted on Twitter.
The CEO of electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA ទទួលបានរបាយការណ៍ឥតគិតថ្លៃ also agrees with star investor Cathie Wood, who continues to assert that a continued rise in rates will cause deflation, a risk already indicated by Musk last September.
“The bond market seems to be signaling that the Fed is making a serious mistake,” Wood wrote on December 7. “At -80 basis points (as measured by the 10 year vs 2 year Treasury yields), the yield curve is more inverted now than at any time since the early ‘80s when double-digit inflation was entrenched.”
She added: “Typically, an ខ្សែកោងទិន្នផលបញ្ច្រាស is pointing to a recession and/or lower than expected inflation than expected. In our view, deflation is a much bigger risk than inflation. Commodity prices and massive retail discounts are corroborating this point of view.”
To which Musk responded: “Absolutely,” on December 9.
Deflation v. Inflation But economist Peter Schiff disagrees with the two influencers.
“Actually the yield curve reflects investor expectations that the #Fed will succeed in bringing #inflation down to 2%,” Schiff commented on Musk’s post. “Investors are wrong. The only thing the Fed will succeed in doing is making the #recession worse, which will crush the dollar and send consumer prices soaring.”
The gap between 3-month bills and 10-year notes is at around 80 basis points, the steepest since 2001 and a worrying harbinger of a recession.
នេះបើយោងតាម ការសិក្សា from the San Francisco Federal Reserve, a sustained inverted yield curve has preceded all of the nine recessions the U.S. economy has suffered since 1955, making it an extremely accurate barometer of financial markets sentiment.
Last September, the entrepreneur បានព្រមាន ថាការដំឡើងអត្រាការប្រាក់នឹងបង្កឱ្យមានបរិត្តផរណារយៈពេលវែង។
“A major Fed rate hike risks deflation,” said the CEO of SpaceX.
ផលវិបាកនៃបរិត្តផរណាអាចជាការបំផ្លិចបំផ្លាញសម្រាប់សេដ្ឋកិច្ច ដោយសារតែការធ្លាក់ចុះនៃតម្លៃលើកទឹកចិត្តគ្រួសារឱ្យពន្យារពេលការសម្រេចចិត្តទិញ ខណៈពេលដែលរង់ចាំការធ្លាក់ចុះតម្លៃបន្ថែមទៀត។
នេះជាលទ្ធផលអាចនាំឱ្យមានការធ្លាក់ចុះនៃការប្រើប្រាស់រួម និងការកើនឡើងនៃសារពើភ័ណ្ឌនៅក្រុមហ៊ុន ដែលមិនអាចលក់ផលិតផលរបស់ពួកគេបានទៀតទេ។ ជាការឆ្លើយតប ពួកគេកាត់បន្ថយការផលិត និងការវិនិយោគ។
Source: https://www.thestreet.com/technology/elon-musk-sounds-a-dire-warning-about-the-economy?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo