Topline
Home builder sentiment climbed in January for the first time since December 2021, according to the National Association of Home Builders, a welcome bright spot for the otherwise bleak housing market ravaged by soaring mortgage rates and a potential recession.
Home builder confidence had declined every month of 2022.
រូបភាព Getty
ការពិតសំខាន់
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Wednesday found the closely-tracked metric rose to 35 this month, with the index tracking survey results from builders regarding current and projected single-family home sales and buyer traffic on a scale of 0 to 100.
That’s a four-point increase from December, but still a far-cry from the 83 reading last January as the housing market deteriorated over the course of 2022.
“A turning point for housing lies ahead,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said in a statement, predicting លំនៅដ្ឋានចាប់ផ្តើម, or the number of new homes beginning construction, will soon rise off of their two-year lows as demand recovers following mortgage rates’ projected decline.
Non-housing data also released Wednesday likely spelled good news for mortgage rates, which surged to a two-decade high as the Federal Reserve relentlessly hiked the federal funds rate to combat inflation.
តម្លៃអ្នកផលិត fell 0.5% from November to December while លក់រាយ declined 1.1% in that timeframe, both slipping faster than economist estimates, according to federal government data, indicating the Fed’s fight to slow inflation and cool the economy continue to bear fruit, stoking optimism about an upcoming pivot from the central bank.
សាវតាសំខាន់
The housing market pandemic-fueled boom in 2020 and 2021 came crashing down to earth last year, with pending home sales slipping dramatically in 2022. The average 30-year mortgage rate climbed from 3.1% in December 2021 to 7.1% in October, according to FreddieMac, with rates dipping slightly to a still-elevated 6.3% as of last week. Redfin ការព្យាករណ៍ last month that average home prices will decline in 2023 for the first time on an annual basis since 2012.
ហេតុការណ៍គួរឱ្យភ្ញាក់ផ្អើល
Though stocks were mostly down Wednesday, the bond market staged a massive rally, with yields 10-year U.S. Treasury notes diving 12 basis points to 3.42%, its lowest level since September TK. Declining yields likely indicate an upcoming decrease in mortgage rates considering the historic ទំនាក់ទំនងបញ្ច្រាស between the two. The ខ្សែកោងទិន្នផល remains highly inverted, with one-year and three-year Treasury yields at 4.66% and 3.75%, respectively.
អានបន្ថែម
វិបត្តិទីផ្សារលំនៅឋាន៖ មនោសញ្ចេតនាអ្នកសាងសង់ផ្ទះត្រូវបានរឹបអូសជារៀងរាល់ខែក្នុងឆ្នាំនេះ ប៉ុន្តែទីបំផុតមាន 'ស្រទាប់ប្រាក់' (ទស្សនាវដ្តី Forbes)
ការព្យាករណ៍ទីផ្សារលំនៅដ្ឋានសម្រាប់ឆ្នាំ 2023៖ តម្លៃផ្ទះនឹងធ្លាក់ចុះជាលើកដំបូងក្នុងរយៈពេលមួយទសវត្សរ៍ (ទស្សនាវដ្តី Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/01/18/home-builder-confidence-jumps-for-first-time-in-12-months—as-housing-market-turning-point-may-be-here/