របៀបដែលតម្លៃត្រូវបានព្យាករណ៍ទីផ្សារខ្លាឃ្មុំនេះ។

Just when I thought 2022 couldn’t get any stranger, my inflation research led me to a bold but inescapable conclusion. We’re living a financial prophecy foretold by the gameshow The Price is Right.

Cliff Hangers, to be specific, teaches the 2022 monetary scene perfectly.

The contest features a climber moving from left to right along an upward-sloping mountain, with a scale of 0 to 25. The contestant bids on a few household items, and the climber moves by the number of dollars the guess misses by.

A perfect bid and the climber will stay put. Off by $10, and the climber will move up 10.

The gameboard is, well, basically a smoothed-out version of this chart below. Which includes an arbitrary scale of $2 trillion to $9 trillion:

The Fed’s Cliff Hanger Board

We’ll come back to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which has grown from $2 trillion to nearly $9 trillion since 2009, in a moment. First, back to Cliff Hangers និង តម្លៃគឺត្រឹមត្រូវ.

Our contestant wins the game if they can keep the climber on the mountain. This is achieved with a score of 25 or less, as expertly displayed by contestant Laura:

Well done, Laura! We hope you enjoyed your prize.

Her predecessor Lana wasn’t as successful. Back in 1982, she missed out on a romantic trip to Tahiti when she greatly underbid a $56 corn popper:

(YouTube commenters speculate that the 2022 price of the popper must be $150+. I checked, and you’ll never believe it. Today the list price on Lana’s loss-inducing WestBend popcorn machine is just $47. How soon we forget that we’ve seen massive បរិត្តផរណា in many household products for decades.)

Oh what Fed Chair Jay Powell wouldn’t give for lower price tags like these across America! Today, Jay is looking more like Lana than Laura.

Inflation is running as hot as it’s been since Lana lost out on Tahiti. The $9 trillion number on the Fed’s balance sheet looks like the equivalent of a 50 score in Cliff Hangers.

Powell is (finally) trying to reign this number in to calm inflation. He’s shedding assets and raising rates. This is the responsible thing to do, because it sops up all the extra money sloshing around.

The problem for Jay is that the stock market ការចុច Like liquidity. When it sniffs out tightening, it’s like my four-year-old’s playbook and throws a big freaking fit:

Jay Powell Pushed Too Far

Sure, the Fed has been printing money since the Financial Crisis. But Jay ជាការពិត overdid it in 2020 and 2021 and now he’s mopping up the mess.

Until prices calm down and the Fed calms its tightening, សាច់ប្រាក់ is the best place to be. I know, I’ve been praising plain dough so often I’m sure you’re sick of it. We sold the brief May bounce. ហើយថ្មីៗនេះយើងបានចាប់ផ្តើមខែមិថុនាជាមួយ "សាច់ប្រាក់គឺជាស្តេចនៅក្នុងការរំលឹក '22":

“យើង​បាន​លើក​ទឹក​ប្រាក់​ក្នុង​ទំព័រ​ទាំង​នេះ​តាំង​ពី​ដើម​ឆ្នាំ​នេះ។ នៅពេលដែល Federal Reserve បានរៀបចំដើម្បីផ្អាកម៉ាស៊ីនបោះពុម្ពប្រាក់របស់ខ្លួន យើងផ្ទុយគ្នាបានកក់ប្រាក់ចំនេញ និងក្រដាសប្រាក់ដុល្លារជាជង់។

យើងត្រូវមានភាពរហ័សរហួន និងត្រៀមខ្លួនក្នុងការទិញ។ កិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងដ៏ល្អបំផុតកើតឡើងនៅចុងបញ្ចប់នៃទីផ្សារធ្លាក់ចុះ។”

ខ្ញុំ​បាន​ផ្តល់​កន្លែង​មួយ​ចំនួន​នៅ​ក្រោម​ ពូករបស់ខ្ញុំ សម្រាប់អ្នកដែលត្រូវការវា។ អ្វីទាំងអស់ ដើម្បីរក្សាដៃគូផ្ទុយពីការទិញមូលនីធិសញ្ញាប័ណ្ណ "សុវត្ថិភាព" ដែលហៀបនឹងលេចចេញនៅចំពោះមុខ។

Let’s admit it because nobody else will. It is មិនអាចទៅរួចនោះទេ ដើម្បីស្វែងរកយុទ្ធសាស្ត្រដ៏វែងដែលជោគជ័យក្នុង ក គាំង ទីផ្សារ។ គិតត្រលប់ទៅឆ្នាំ 2008។ ទ្រព្យសម្បត្តិតែមួយគត់ដែលទទួលបានគឺប្រាក់ដុល្លារអាមេរិក និងរតនាគារសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិក។

ប៉ុន្តែរតនាគារគឺ មិនមាន ចម្លើយក្នុងឆ្នាំ 2022។ ទីផ្សារមូលបត្របំណុលនៅឆ្នាំ 2022 មានរបស់វា។ ការចាប់ផ្តើមដ៏អាក្រក់បំផុតចាប់តាំងពីឆ្នាំ 1788 នេះ​បើ​តាម​អ្នក​សេដ្ឋកិច្ច​នាំមុខ​នៅ Nasdaq។

ទីផ្សារជាធម្មតាឡើងដល់ទិសដៅកើនឡើង និង downside. The end of this bear market, however, will probably be ugly. The biggest losses are typically reserved for the end of a down move. Wags call it “capitulation,” when everyone throws in the towel and sells.

(Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro for StoneX, aptly said that the “easy” 20% loss is behind us. The challenging 20% is yet to come.)

I agree that the market has 10% to 20% more downside, and I’d prefer to wait it out in cash. When we do see signs of a final capitulation and reversal in Fed policy, you’ll hear from me.

The Fed will one day become our friend again—but not as early as bottom fishers hope for. Inflation may come down, but I don’t see it dropping below Powell’s goal of 2% any time soon.

Which means Jay has some work to do before he can climb Bull Mountain once again!

Until then, it’s best to wait out this tightening cycle. In the meantime, you are more than welcome to stash cash under my still-outperforming mattress.

Brett Owens គឺជាប្រធានអ្នកយុទ្ធសាស្ត្រខាងការវិនិយោគ ទស្សនវិស័យផ្ទុយ។ សម្រាប់គំនិតចំណូលកាន់តែអស្ចារ្យទទួលយករបាយការណ៍ពិសេសចុងក្រោយបំផុតរបស់អ្នកដោយឥតគិតថ្លៃ៖ ផលប័ត្រចូលនិវត្តន៍ដំបូងរបស់អ្នក៖ ភាគលាភដ៏ធំ—ជារៀងរាល់ខែ—ជារៀងរហូត.

ការបង្ហាញ: គ្មាន