As French voters head to the polls Sunday, Wall Street is forecasting market upset if far-right candidate Marine Le Pen proves victorious.
Timothy A. Clary | Afp | Getty Images
French voters head to the polls on Sunday to cast their ballots in the final round of a close presidential race between incumbent Emmanuel Macron and rival Marine Le Pen.
Centrist Macron was seen taking the lead against his far-right opponent Friday as the pair face a rerun of their 2017 tete-a-tete.
In the final day of campaigning ahead of this weekend’s second-round vote, ការស្ទង់មតិបានបង្ហាញ Macron with a 57.5% lead over Le Pen’s 42.5%.
But with the election coming at a time of renewed economic and political pressure, both domestically and within Europe at large, the outcome is far from certain, according to Wall Street.
Here’s a look at some major banks’ predictions:
ក្រុមហ៊ុន Goldman Sachs
ក្រុមហ៊ុន Citigroup
While Citigroup’s base case is also for a Macron win, its probability is less clear cut at just 65%.
ប្រាក់អឺរ៉ូ, meanwhile, would come under pressure from a Le Pen win, likely declining to 1.065 against the ប្រាក់ដុល្លារ, the bank said. A Macron victory, on the other hand, would provide “mild upside.”
ក្រុមហ៊ុន Societe Generale
The bank also previously named some 37 French stocks with market caps above 1 billion euros which could come under particular pressure from political risks surrounding social unrest, asset nationalization and EU policy. Those include Air France-KLM ។, ក្រុមហ៊ុន Accor និង ក្រុមហ៊ុន Renault.
In the debt markets, meanwhile, the spread between French and German 10-year bonds could jump to 90 basis points before ultimately settling in the 60-90 basis points range, if Le Pen were to win. If Macron were reelected spreads would likely remain around current levels at 45-50 basis points, it said.