តារាងទីផ្សារភាគហ៊ុនមួយចំនួនដែលត្រូវពិចារណានៅពេលយើងទន្ទឹងរង់ចាំ

This post was originally publihed onn TKer.co

Stocks rallied again, with the S&P 500 climbing 2.7% last week. The index is now up 11.8% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03 and down 16.6% from its January 3, 2022 closing high of 4,796.56.

The past two weeks have come with loads of new data, and a lot of analysts returning from break published tons of fresh research.

Here are a few charts about the market that stood out:

Financial obligations have been manageable

“To date, higher interest rates have not negatively impacted margins,” Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, wrote in a January 4 note to clients.

To illustrate this, Golub share this chart of S&P 500 interest expenses as percentage of revenue.

For more on the implications of higher interest rates, read “There’s more to the story than ‘high interest rates are bad for stocks’ 🤨,“ “Business finances look great 💰,“ and “ហេតុអ្វីបានជាការសង $500 អាចពិបាកជាងការសង $1,000 🤔“

Companies are investing in their business

“Despite macro uncertainty, capex spending has remained strong, accelerating to +24% YoY in 3Q, driven by Energy and Communication Services,“ Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity strategy at BofA, observed on Friday.

សាឡុង expects the U.S. economy to go into recession ឆ្នាំ​នេះ។

“Although capex is typically pro-cyclical, we see several reasons that capex will be more resilient during this recession than in the past, including persistent supply challenges, the need to spend on automation amid wage inflation/tight labor market, reshoring, underinvestment by corporates for decades, and the energy transition.“

For more on capex spending, read “ហេតុផល 9 ដើម្បីមានសុទិដ្ឋិនិយមអំពីសេដ្ឋកិច្ចនិងទីផ្សារ 💪“ and “Three massive economic tailwinds I can’t stop thinking about 📈📈📈.“

Watch for stocks to decouple during earnings season

“We look for price dispersion to rise over the next ~6 weeks as it has done throughout prior earnings seasons,” Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote on Monday.

រឿងរ៉ាវនៅតែបន្ត

Dispersion reflects the degree to which individual stocks move together.

While Subramanian believes capex spending will hold up, Wilson argues that companies cutting back will be see their stock prices outperform.

“In our view, a key driver of this pick up in dispersion will be the widening relative performance gap between those companies that are operationally efficient in this challenging macro environment and those that are not,” he said. “In this sense, we think companies that minimize capex, inventory and labor investment and maximize cash flow will be rewarded on a relative basis.”

បានជាវ

Analysts expect earnings growth in 2023 and 2024

បើយោងតាមឧតាមប៉ាន់ស្មានរបស់ឧស្សាហកម្ម Gartner ក្នុងឆ្នាំ២០២១ បានឲ្យដឹងថា ការចំណាយរបស់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ចុងក្រោយលើសេវា public cloud បានកើនឡើងយ៉ាងខ្លាំង។ តួលេខនេះគឺគួរឱ្យភ្ញាក់ផ្អើល ដោយមានការប៉ាន់ប្រមាណការចំណាយគឺ ៣៩៦ ពាន់លានដុល្លារក្នុងឆ្នាំ ២០២១ និងកើនឡើង ២១.៧% ដល់ ៤៨២ ពាន់លានដុល្លារក្នុងឆ្នាំ ២០២២។ លើសពីនេះ Gartner ព្យាករណ៍ពីការផ្លាស់ប្តូរដ៏សំខាន់នៅក្នុងការចំណាយផ្នែកព័ត៌មានវិទ្យារបស់សហគ្រាស ជាមួយនឹងការចំណាយលើ public cloud លើសពី ៤៥% នៃការចំណាយសរុបនៅឆ្នាំ ២០២៦ តិចជាង ១៧% ក្នុងឆ្នាំ២០២១។ ការប៉ាន់ប្រមាណនេះ ឆ្លុះបញ្ចាំងពីការកើនឡើងនូវការកោតសរសើរ ចំពោះអត្ថប្រយោជន៍របស់ cloud ទាក់ទងនឹងការធ្វើមាត្រដ្ឋាន ភាពបត់បែន និងការបង្កើនប្រសិទ្ធភាពតម្លៃ។ សំណុំរឿង, analysts are expecting S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) to rise to $229.53 in 2023 and $252.74 in 2024.

For more bullish metrics, read “ហេតុផល 9 ដើម្បីមានសុទិដ្ឋិនិយមអំពីសេដ្ឋកិច្ចនិងទីផ្សារ 💪.“

However, those expectations have been coming down

ពី សំណុំរឿង:

There’s no shortage of strategists expecting these numbers to be revised lower. For more, read “ហានិភ័យមួយក្នុងចំណោមហានិភ័យដែលត្រូវបានលើកឡើងញឹកញាប់បំផុតចំពោះភាគហ៊ុនក្នុងឆ្នាំ 2023 គឺ 'ហួសកម្រិត' 😑.“

Earnings growth usually beats estimates

ពី សំណុំរឿង: “…the actual earnings growth rate has exceeded the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of the quarter in 38 of the past 40 quarters for the S&P 500. The only exceptions were Q1 2020 and last quarter (Q3 2022).”

For more on this, read “'ប្រសើរជាងការរំពឹងទុក' បានបាត់បង់អត្ថន័យរបស់វា។ 🤷🏻‍♂️“ and “ការពិតអំពីការរំពឹងទុកកាន់តែយ៉ាប់យ៉ឺនរបស់អ្នកវិភាគ 📉.“

ចែករំលែក

Valuations bottom before expected earnings

“In prior bear markets, equities have troughed ~1m before the ISM bottoms, but 1-2 months after financial conditions peak,” Keith Parker, head of U.S. equity strategy at UBS, wrote in a January 4 note. “The market bottom coincides with the P/E bottom in almost all instances, with a rise in the P/E typically following a fall in corporate bond yields.“

The chart below shows the P/E bottom also precedes the bottom in forward earnings estimates.

For more on P/E ratios, read “Use valuation metrics like the P/E ratio with caution ⚠️.“ For more on stocks bottoming, read “Stocks usually bottom before everything else"។

In the long run, earnings go up

Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha expects Q4 earnings of $53.80 per share for the S&P 500. This would bring EPS closer to its long-run trend, which is up and to the right.

For more on long-term earnings, read “Expectations for S&P 500 earnings are slipping 📉“ and “អ្នកជ្រើសរើសភាគហ៊ុនរឿងព្រេងនិទានលោក Peter Lynch បានធ្វើការអង្កេតទីផ្សារដ៏មានគុណសម្បត្តិគួរឱ្យកត់សម្គាល់ក្នុងឆ្នាំ 1994 🎯.“

Great years follow horrible years

“In the past 90 years, the S&P 500 has only posted a more severe loss than its 19.4% annual decline in 2022 on four occasions – 1937, 1974, 2002, and 2008,” Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, observed on Thursday. “In the subsequent calendar years, the index logged >20% gains each time with an average price return of 26.5% as highlighted in Exhibit 8.“

For more on short-term patterns in the stock market, read “ឆ្នាំ 2022 គឺជាឆ្នាំមិនធម្មតាសម្រាប់ទីផ្សារភាគហ៊ុន 📉“ and “Don’t expect average returns in the stock market this year 📊“

បានជាវ

Not many ETFs beat the S&P 500

ពី S&P Dow Jones Indices: “On Jan. 29, 2023, the world’s longest-surviving exchange-traded fund — initially known as the Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipt or by the acronym SPDR (the “Spider”) — will celebrate 30 years since it began trading… Investing in an index tracker was seen (by some) as an admission of defeat back in early 1993. At best, an index fund was “settling for average.” But, as it turns out, a portfolio approximately replicating the S&P 500’s return would have been emphatically above average since then.”

For more on this, read “Most pros can’t beat the market 🥊“

Most consumers expect stocks to fall

ចាប់ពី NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations: “The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 34.9%.“

For more on this, read “Most of us are terrible stock market forecasters 🤦‍♂️.“

BONUS: Execs are talking sh*t on earnings calls

ចាប់ពី FT’s Robin Wigglesworth: “Using AlphaSense/Sentieo’s transcription search function, we can see that the ‘polycrisis’ of runaway inflation, pandemics, interest rate increases, supply chain snafus and wars helped lift swearing on earnings calls and investor days to a new record high in 2022. Sadly, when we first looked into this last year it turned out that most of the redacted swear words were pretty plain vanilla, like ‘shit’ and ‘bullshit.’“

It’s a lot to process. Indeed, investing in the stock market can be complicated.

Overall, there seem to be a lot of reasons to be optimistic. And the reasons to be pessimistic aren’t particularly out of the ordinary.

For many more charts on the stock market, read “ឆ្នាំ 2022 គឺជាឆ្នាំមិនធម្មតាសម្រាប់ទីផ្សារភាគហ៊ុន 📉.“

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ទាក់ទងពី TKer:

ចែករំលែក

ពិនិត្យមើលចរន្តម៉ាក្រូ🔀

មាន​ចំណុច​ទិន្នន័យ​គួរ​ឱ្យ​កត់​សម្គាល់​មួយ​ចំនួន​ពី​សប្តាហ៍​មុន​ដើម្បី​ពិចារណា៖

🎈 អតិផរណានៅតែបន្តត្រជាក់។ នេះ សន្ទស្សន៍តម្លៃទំនិញប្រើប្រាស់ (CPI) in December was up 6.5% from a year ago, down from 7.1% in November. Adjusted for food and energy prices, core CPI was up 5.7%, down from 6.0%.

On a month-over-month basis, CPI was down 0.1% and core CPI was up 0.3%.

If you annualized the three-month trend in the monthly figures, CPI is rising at a cool 1.8% rate and core CPI is climbing at a just-above-target 3.1% rate.

For more on the implications of cooling inflation, read “សេណារីយ៉ូចុះចតទន់ 'goldilocks' កើនឡើងដែលមនុស្សគ្រប់គ្នាចង់បាន 😀.“

👍 Consumer sentiment improves. ពីសាកលវិទ្យាល័យ Michigan ខែធ្នូ ការស្ទង់មតិអ្នកប្រើប្រាស់: “Consumer sentiment remained low from a historical perspective but continued lifting for the second consecutive month, rising 8% above December and reaching about 4% below a year ago. Current assessments of personal finances surged 16% to its highest reading in eight months on the basis of higher incomes and easing inflation… Year-ahead inflation expectations receded for the fourth straight month, falling to 4.0% in January from 4.4% in December. The current reading is the lowest since April 2021 but remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.“

👍 Expectations for inflation improve. From the NY Fed’s December Survey of Consumer Expectations: “Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 5.0%, its lowest reading since July 2021, according to the December Survey of Consumer Expectations. Medium-term expectations remained at 3.0%, while the five-year-ahead measure increased to 2.4%.“

💳 អតិថិជនកំពុងជំពាក់បំណុលគេកាន់តែច្រើន។ យោង​ទៅ​តាម ទិន្នន័យបម្រុងសហព័ន្ធ released Monday, total revolving consumer credit outstanding increased to $1.19 trillion in November. Revolving credit consists ភាគច្រើន នៃប្រាក់កម្ចីកាតឥណទាន។

💳 Credit card interest rates are up។ ពី Axios: “The Federal Reserve’s most recent report on costs of consumer credit showed average interest rates on bank-issued credit cards touching 19.1% in the fourth quarter. That beats the previous record high — 18.9% — set in the first quarter of 1985.“

💳 Credit card delinquencies are low, but normalizing. From JPMorgan Chase’s Q4 earnings announcement: “We expect continued normalization in credit in 2023.“ The bank’s outlook assumes a “mild recession in the central case.“ For more on this, read “Consumer finances are in remarkably good shape 💰“

💰 Overall consumer finances are stable. From Apollo Global Management’s Torsten Slok: “…households across the income distribution continue to have a higher level of cash available than before the pandemic, and the speed with which households are running down their cash balances in recent quarters has been very slow. Combined with continued solid job growth and robust wage inflation, the bottom line is that there remains a powerful tailwind in place for US consumer spending.“

“The U.S. economy currently remains strong with consumers still spending excess cash and businesses healthy,” Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, បាននិយាយថា: on Friday. For more on this, read “Consumer finances are in remarkably good shape 💰“

🛍️ Consumer spending is stable. From BofA: “Although upper-income (<125k) spending modestly outperformed lower-income (<50k) spending during the holidays, we see no clear signs of cracks in the latter. Lower-income HHs are still allocating a larger share of total card spending to discretionary categories than they were before the pandemic (Exhibit 7). This suggests they are not yet moving to a more precautionary stance. Lower-income HHs also do not yet appear to be facing liquidity issues, since they are allocating a smaller share of total card spending to credit cards than they did in 2019 (Exhibit 8).“ For more economic indicators that are holding up, read “ហេតុផល 9 ដើម្បីមានសុទិដ្ឋិនិយមអំពីសេដ្ឋកិច្ចនិងទីផ្សារ 💪.“

💼 ការទាមទារគ្មានការងារធ្វើនៅតែមានកម្រិតទាប។ ការទាមទារដំបូងសម្រាប់អត្ថប្រយោជន៍អត់ការងារធ្វើ fell to 205,000 during the week ending Jan. 7, down from 206,000 the week prior. While the number is up from its six-decade low of 166,000 in March, it remains near levels seen during periods of economic expansion.

🤒 Many are out sick។ ពី KPMG’s Diane Swonk: “Nearly 70% more workers out sick each month than pre-pandemic average. The scars of the pandemic are adding to staffing shortages. The number of those out sick and unable to work hit 1.6 million in November; that left nearly 700,000 more people on the sidelines than in any month of the 2010s. Fatalities to date are higher than other developed economies. Many older workers had COVID and are unable to work due to long COVID. Younger retirees are now needed to care for grandchildren and elderly parents, due to acute shortage of child and long-term care workers. Those out from work due to childcare problems reached an all-time high in October as more children were sick with RSV, Flu, and COVID-19.“

💼 Job openings are ticking lower. From labor market data firm ភ្ជាប់: “…labor demand continued to decline through the end of 2022 as total active job listings dropped 4.5% in the U.S. from November to December, compared to the 6.9% decrease in listing volume from October to November, and declined across nearly all states and industries as well. Employers also created fewer listings in December, as the count of new job listings dropped 3.2% month-over-month. However, while we observed declines in both new and total listings, removed listings grew by 3.5% from November to December.“ For more on this, read “How job openings explain everything right now 📋“

📈 កម្រិតសារពើភ័ណ្ឌកើនឡើង។ យោង​ទៅ​តាម ទិន្នន័យការិយាល័យជំរឿន released Tuesday, wholesale inventories climbed 1.0% to $933.1 billion in November, bringing the inventories/sales ratio to 1.35. For more, read “យើងអាចបញ្ឈប់ការហៅវាថាជាវិបត្តិសង្វាក់ផ្គត់ផ្គង់ ⛓.”

សាកទាំងអស់គ្នា 🤔

យើងកំពុងទទួលបានភស្តុតាងជាច្រើន ដែលយើងអាចទទួលបាន សេណារីយ៉ូចុះចតទន់ "Goldilocks" កើនឡើង ដែលជាកន្លែងដែលអតិផរណាចុះត្រជាក់ដល់កម្រិតដែលអាចគ្រប់គ្រងបាន ដោយសេដ្ឋកិច្ចមិនចាំបាច់ធ្លាក់ចូលទៅក្នុងវិបត្តិសេដ្ឋកិច្ច។

But for now, inflation still has to come down more before the Federal Reserve is comfortable with price levels. So we should expect the ធនាគារកណ្តាលនឹងបន្តរឹតបន្តឹងគោលនយោបាយរូបិយវត្ថុដែលមានន័យថាលក្ខខណ្ឌហិរញ្ញវត្ថុកាន់តែតឹងតែង (ឧ. អត្រាការប្រាក់កាន់តែខ្ពស់ ស្តង់ដារផ្តល់ប្រាក់កម្ចីកាន់តែតឹងរ៉ឹង និងតម្លៃភាគហ៊ុនទាប)។ ទាំងអស់នេះមានន័យ the market beatings are likely to continue និងហានិភ័យ សេដ្ឋកិច្ចធ្លាក់ចុះ ចូលទៅក្នុងវិបត្តិសេដ្ឋកិច្ចនឹងកាន់តែខ្លាំង។

However, we may soon hear the Fed change its tone in a more dovish way if we continue to get evidence that inflation is easing.

វាជារឿងសំខាន់ដែលត្រូវចងចាំថា ខណៈពេលដែលហានិភ័យនៃការធ្លាក់ចុះសេដ្ឋកិច្ចត្រូវបានកើនឡើង។ អ្នក​ប្រើ​ប្រាស់​មក​ពី​មុខ​តំណែង​ហិរញ្ញវត្ថុ​ខ្លាំង​ណាស់។. មនុស្សអត់ការងារធ្វើ ទទួលបានការងារ. អ្នក​ដែល​មាន​ការងារ​ទទួល​បាន​ការ​ដំឡើង​ថ្លៃ។ ហើយមនុស្សជាច្រើននៅតែមាន ការសន្សំលើស ដើម្បីប៉ះ។ ជាការពិតណាស់ ទិន្នន័យចំណាយដ៏រឹងមាំបញ្ជាក់ពីភាពធន់នឹងហិរញ្ញវត្ថុនេះ។ ដូច្នេះហើយ ឆាប់ពេកក្នុងការបន្លឺសំឡេងរោទិ៍ពីទស្សនៈនៃការប្រើប្រាស់.

នៅចំណុចនេះ, ណាមួយ។ ការធ្លាក់ចុះទំនងជាមិនប្រែទៅជាវិបត្តិសេដ្ឋកិច្ចទេ។ បានផ្តល់ឱ្យថា សុខភាពហិរញ្ញវត្ថុរបស់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់ និងអាជីវកម្មនៅតែរឹងមាំ.

ដូចរាល់ដង អ្នកវិនិយោគរយៈពេលវែងគួរចងចាំរឿងនោះ។ វិបត្តិសេដ្ឋកិច្ច និង ទីផ្សារខ្លាឃ្មុំ គឺគ្រាន់តែ ផ្នែកនៃកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀង នៅពេលអ្នកចូលទីផ្សារភាគហ៊ុនក្នុងគោលបំណងបង្កើតប្រាក់ចំណេញរយៈពេលវែង។ ខណៈពេលដែល ទីផ្សារមានឆ្នាំដ៏អាក្រក់ទស្សនវិស័យរយៈពេលវែងសម្រាប់ភាគហ៊ុន នៅតែវិជ្ជមាន.

សម្រាប់ព័ត៌មានបន្ថែមអំពីរបៀបដែលរឿងម៉ាក្រូកំពុងវិវត្ត សូមពិនិត្យមើលចរន្តម៉ាក្រូ TKer មុន »

For more on why this is an unusually unfavorable environment for the stock market, read “ការវាយដំទីផ្សារនឹងបន្តរហូតដល់អតិផរណាមានភាពប្រសើរឡើង 🥊“ »

For a closer look at where we are and how we got here, read “បានពន្យល់ថា ភាពរញ៉េរញ៉ៃដ៏ស្មុគស្មាញនៃទីផ្សារ និងសេដ្ឋកិច្ច 🧩"

This post was originally publihed onn TKer.co

Sam Ro គឺជាស្ថាបនិក TKer.co ។ តាមដានគាត់នៅលើ Twitter នៅ @ សារុន