Hope you enjoyed the rally in S&P 500 stocks this year while it lasted. Analysts are already calling for some of the biggest gainers to fall.
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ភាគហ៊ុនរបស់ ឌីណាមិចដែកថែប (អេសអិល), ណុច (ន) និង អេសរ៉ូប៊ីនសុន (CHRW), all due to drop 2% or more in the next 12 months, says an Investor’s Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSmith. That might disappoint some investors who saw these stocks rise 5.5% or more this year.
S&P 500's sudden reversal in February and March is a bit of a wake-up call for investors who thought all systems are go for stocks. The Federal Reserve is still threatening higher short-term interest rates. Meanwhile, the White House is talking about higher taxes, including on businesses.
“Unfortunately, we’re in a market environment where every data point feels like the children’s game, red light green light,” said Liz Young, Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi. “The most recent market-moving event was Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress, which sent fed funds futures up in quick fashion. Red light.”
S&P 500’s Gains For Year At Risk
In many ways, seeing the S&P 500 soften this year comes as a surprise. The S&P 500 jumped more than 6% in January on the hopes the Fed’s biggest rate hikes are over.
But now, the whole thesis of jumping into the S&P 500 have faded away. The S&P 500 is now barely clinging onto a gain for the year of just 2.4%. And now, the average stock in the S&P 500 is barely clinging onto a gain of 1.4%.
And some of the biggest risk is in shares of S&P 500 that ran up the most.
Steel Stocks In The S&P 500 Show Their Rust
Talk about a stock analysts think is set up for a fall. Shares of leading steel company, ឌីណាមិចដែកថែប, are up more than 31% this year to 128.19. That easily makes it one of the top stocks in the index.
But analysts think it’s got quite a way to drop. They’re calling for the stock to be worth just 110.50 a share in 12 months, or nearly 14% less. Much of the downturn in the stock is explained by the company’s fundamentals. Last year was boom time at Steel Dynamics. Adjusted earnings per share soared more than 40% on robust demand. But this year is an entirely different story. Analysts think the company’s profit will drop by nearly half to $11.98 a share.
It’s a similar story at rival steel company, Nucor. The stock is up more than 27% this year alone to 167.85 a share. But analysts think in 12 months’ time the stock will fall nearly 12% to 148.13. The fundamentals show a similar trend. The company’s profit jumped more than 20% in 2022. But this year, softening demand is likely to drag profit down by more than half.
It’s Not Just Steel
Steel stocks aren’t the only S&P 500 members analysts are warning ran up too much. Logistics company C.H. Robinson is due for a nearly 10% drop in the next 12 months, analysts say. That would come as quite a surprise for investors enjoying their nearly 13% gain on the stock this year.
Are all S&P 500 stocks up this year due for a fall? Hardly. Analysts are predicting a gain of at least 18% by the average stock in the S&P 500 in the next year. So when they’re willing to flag you off of some winners, it might be worth listening.
Analysts Says These S&P 500 Stocks Up Are Due To Fall
All are expected to fall in the next 12 months, despite being up 5.5% or more this year
ក្រុមហ៊ុន | Ticker | ពីឆ្នាំទៅកាលបរិច្ឆេទ % ch ។ | Implied downside | វិស័យ |
---|---|---|---|---|
ឌីណាមិចដែកថែប | (អេសអិល) | 31.2% | -13.8% | សមា្ភារៈ |
ណុច | (ន) | 27.3 | -11.8 | សមា្ភារៈ |
អេសរ៉ូប៊ីនសុនទូទាំងពិភពលោក | (CHRW) | 12.9 | -9.7 | ឧស្សាហកម្ម |
Expeditors International of Washington | (អិមភីឌីឌី) | 6.1 | -9.5 | ឧស្សាហកម្ម |
ស្វ័យប្រវត្តិកម្ម Rockwell | (សាធារណរដ្ឋកូរ៉េ) | 16.1 | -6.5 | ឧស្សាហកម្ម |
ក្លូរីក។ | (CLX) | 6.4 | -5.3 | គូបអតិថិជន |
ព្រះអាទិត្យដំបូង | (អេហ្វអេសអិល) | 41.1 | -4.9 | ពត៌មានវិទ្យា |
លោក Robert ពាក់កណ្តាលអន្តរជាតិ | (អេក) | 6.8 | -4.3 | ឧស្សាហកម្ម |
ខ្ទាស់ | (អេសអេអិន) | 8.1 | -3.5 | ឧស្សាហកម្ម |
ក្រុមហ៊ុនវេចខ្ចប់អាមេរិច | (PKG) | 6.0 | -3.3 | សមា្ភារៈ |
ធនធាន Franklin | (បែន) | 5.5 | -3.3 | ហិរញ្ញវត្ថុ |
អូតូសទូទាំងពិភពលោក | (OTIS) | 7.5 | -2.3 | ឧស្សាហកម្ម |
ប្រភព៖ S&P Global Market Intelligence, IBD
តាម Matt Krantz នៅលើ Twitter @Mattkrantz
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Source: https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-stocks-up-big-this-year-are-due-for-a-nasty-fall-analysts-say/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo