អ្នកយុទ្ធសាស្រ្តបាននិយាយថា ទសវត្សរ៍ឆ្នាំ 1980 គឺជាប្លង់មេសម្រាប់វដ្តនៃអតិផរណានាពេលខាងមុខ ហើយទាំងនេះគឺជាភាគហ៊ុនសម្រាប់វា

របស់​យើង ការហៅនៃថ្ងៃ from Jefferies tackles that idea. “Disinflation is a key assumption for our road map for 2023,” says Desh Peramunetilleke, global head of microstrategy, and analyst Mahesh Kedia, in a note to clients on Thursday.

“The 1980s disinflation cycle brought about by higher rates and easing
supply side pressures provide a good template for the current cycle. Broadly, quality growth stocks/sectors did better than value, and small-caps underperformed,” said the pair.

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What did well from April 1980 to February 1983 was the consumer, with business services, staples and consumer services outperforming, while commodities and industrials did less well. Buying quality and avoiding value was also a smart move, they add.

As for here and now, the pair say while extreme inflation is usually not great for stocks, moderate inflation can be a better setup. They note a positive correlation over the past 20 years, between monthly S&P 500 returns and the percentage point change in U.S. 10-year inflation expectations.

“Based on the sector correlation with the [10-year inflation expectations,] materials, energy, infotech and industrials are sectors to avoid when inflation is falling, while staples, utilities, communication services and healthcare are in focus,” said Peramunetilleke and Kedia. “Style-wise, investors should avoid GARP (growth at a reasonable price), value and reversion and focus on low risk and quality stocks during falling inflation.”

Reversion refers to a view that any asset over time will return to its average price.

As for stock ideas, Jefferies has some top disinflation plays to consider. First up are those negatively correlated to inflation — Procter & Gamble
PG,
-2.11​%,
ប្រាក់ដុល្លារទូទៅ
ឌីជី
-0.78​%,
ក្រុមហ៊ុន Walmart
WMT,
-1.43​%,
វិហារនិងឌឺវត
CHD,
-1.84​%,
McDonald's
អេឌីស៊ីឌី,
-0.92​%,
ការគ្រប់គ្រងកាកសំណល់
WM,
-0.27​%,
Costco
ថ្លៃដើម
-2.08​%,
ការផ្ទុកសាធារណៈ
PSA,
+ 0.62%,
ការតភ្ជាប់កាកសំណល់
WCN,
-0.95​%
and Mondelez Intl
MDLZ,
-1.13​%.

Under quality stocks at a reasonable price, they list Visa
V,
+ 0.43%,
ទំព័រដើមដេប៉ូ
HD,
-3.96​%,
Broadcom
AVGO,
-1.93​%,
ប្រព័ន្ធស៊ីស្កូ
ស៊ីអេសស៊ី
-0.94​%,
លីន
លីន,
+ 0.06%,
TJX
ធីជេអេច
-0.50​%,
Booking Holding
BKNG,
+ 0.83%,
Altria
ម។ ស។
+ 1.20%,
បូស្តុនវិទ្យាសាស្ត្រ
BSX,
+ 0.82%
and Ulta Beauty
ULTA,
-2.39​%.

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សូមស្តាប់ គំនិតថ្មីល្អបំផុតនៅក្នុងផតខាស់ប្រាក់ ជាមួយអ្នកយកព័ត៌មាន MarketWatch លោក Charles Passy និងសេដ្ឋវិទូ Stephanie Kelton ។