Over the past few years, dozens of U.S. midstream companies have set their sights on natural gas pipelines and export terminals as the U.S. natural gas and LNG markets explode while crude oil pipeline capacity continues to exceed production.
Natural gas projects are expected to be the fastest growing pipeline sector as production rises and shippers find new customers in Europe and Asia. Now, as analysts tell Reuters, it’s all about boosting U.S. capacity and adding new pipelines to transport natural gas to LNG export terminals.
"Everybody has pretty much given up on ever doing another long-haul pipeline anywhere outside of Texas and, maybe, Louisiana,” Bradley Olsen, lead portfolio manager for Recurrent Investment Advisors’ midstream infrastructure strategy, has told Reuters.
Europe’s natural gas demand has skyrocketed as the EU tries to lower its reliance on Russian natural gas following its invasion of Ukraine. Europe has displaced Asia as the top destination for U.S. LNG, and now receives 65% of total exports. The EU has pledged to reduce its consumption of Russian natural gas by nearly two-thirds before the year’s end, while Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have vowed to eliminate Russian gas imports outright.
The European gas crisis has only deepened after Russia cut off the gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria, ostensibly for failing to pay for gas in roubles, sending European gas prices soaring. The move marks a ratcheting up of tensions and could reduce supplies to Europe, as many pipelines pass through Poland ទិស to the rest of the continent. Adding to supply woes, Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline that supplies Germany has gone offline for scheduled maintenance. While it partially resumed operations on July 21st, Europe feared that it could be delayed for political leverage.
មិនគួរឱ្យភ្ញាក់ផ្អើល, Europe has become the top importer of U.S. LNG, taking about 65% of U.S. exports.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that the United States will surpass Australia and Qatar to become the world’s top LNG exporter this year, with LNG exports continuing to lead the growth in U.S. natural gas exports and average 12.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2022. The United States currently ranks second in the world in natural gas exports, behind only Russia.
According to the EIA, annual U.S. LNG exports are set to increase by 2.4 Bcf/d in 2022 and 0.5 Bcf/d in 2023. The energy watchdog has forecast that natural gas exports by pipeline to Mexico and Canada will increase slightly, by 0.3 Bcf/d in 2022 and by 0.4 Bcf/d in 2023, thanks to more exports to Mexico.
In contrast to natural gas, crude oil pipeline capacity continues to far exceed production. Currently, there are ~8 million barrels per day of Permian crude pipeline capacity, significantly more than the 5.5 million bpd of production, according to EIA and Morningstar figures.
Natural Gas and LNG Projects
The pivotal Permian Basin is preparing to unleash a torrent of gas and gas projects to meet exploding LNG and natural gas demand – coming just in time, given that limited takeaway capacity is expected to start being keenly felt in 2023, which could lead to negative pricing in the basin.
ការផ្ទេរថាមពល LP (NYSE: ET) កំពុងរកមើល សាងសង់បំពង់បង្ហូរប្រេងធំបន្ទាប់ to transport natural gas production from the Permian Basin. Energy Transfer has also started building the Gulf Run pipeline in Louisiana to move gas from the Haynesville Shale in Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana to the Gulf Coast.
Energy Transfer is expected to report Q2 earnings on 3rd August 2022. The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter, based on five analysts as per Zacks Investment Research, is $0.28 compared to $0.20 for last year’s corresponding period.
Back in May, a consortium of oil and natural gas firms, namely WhiteWater Midstream LLC, EnLink ពាក់កណ្តាលស្ទ្រីម (NYSE:ENLC), ក្រុមហ៊ុន Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), និង អិលអិលអិលអិលអិល (NYSE: MPlX) បានប្រកាសថាពួកគេបានឈានដល់ការសម្រេចចិត្តវិនិយោគចុងក្រោយ (FID) ដើម្បីឆ្ពោះទៅមុខជាមួយនឹងការសាងសង់ បំពង់បង្ហូរ Matterhorn Express បន្ទាប់ពីបានធានានូវកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងដឹកជញ្ជូនរឹងមាំគ្រប់គ្រាន់ជាមួយអ្នកដឹកជញ្ជូន។
According to the press release, “The Matterhorn Express Pipeline has been designed to transport up to 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas through approximately 490 miles of 42-inch pipeline from Waha, Texas, to the Katy area near Houston, Texas. Supply for the Matterhorn Express Pipeline will be sourced from multiple upstream connections in the Permian Basin, including direct connections to processing facilities in the Midland Basin through an approximately 75-mile lateral, as well as a direct connection to the 3.2 Bcf/d Agua Blanca Pipeline, a joint venture between WhiteWater and MPLX.”
Matterhorn is expected to be in service in the second half of 2024, pending regulatory approvals.
នាយកប្រតិបត្តិក្រុមហ៊ុន WhiteWater Christer Rundlof បានបង្ហាញពីភាពជាដៃគូរបស់ក្រុមហ៊ុនជាមួយក្រុមហ៊ុនបំពង់បង្ហូរប្រេងចំនួនបីក្នុងការអភិវឌ្ឍន៍ "ការដឹកជញ្ជូនឧស្ម័នកើនឡើងចេញពីអាង Permian នៅពេលដែលផលិតកម្មនៅតែបន្តកើនឡើងនៅរដ្ឋតិចសាស់ភាគខាងលិច” Rundlof និយាយថា Matterhorn នឹងផ្តល់ "ការចូលប្រើទីផ្សារបុព្វលាភ ជាមួយនឹងភាពបត់បែនដ៏ប្រសើរសម្រាប់អ្នកដឹកជញ្ជូន Permian Basin ខណៈពេលដែលដើរតួយ៉ាងសំខាន់ក្នុងការកាត់បន្ថយបរិមាណដែលឆេះ"។
Matterhorn ចូលរួមក្នុងបញ្ជីដែលកំពុងកើនឡើងនៃគម្រោងបំពង់បង្ហូរប្រេងដែលត្រូវបានរចនាឡើងដើម្បីចាប់យកបរិមាណកើនឡើងនៃការផ្គត់ផ្គង់ Permian ដើម្បីបញ្ជូនទៅទីផ្សារខាងក្រោម។
Early this month, WhiteWater revealed plans to expand the បំពង់ Whistler‘s capacity by about 0.5 Bcf/d, to 2.5 Bcf/d, with three new compressor stations.
Source: Natural Gas Intelligence
Although the companies have not divulged the cost and revenue estimates of the Matterhorn, a project of that magnitude is likely to provide years of predictable cash flows to these producers–which, incidentally, are all high-dividend payers.
Oklahoma-based Devon, one of the Permian’s top producers, recently said it expects Permian production to reach nearly 600,000 boe/d in the second quarter. The new pipeline will help support the company as it increases its production in the Permian in the coming years. DVN stock currently yields (Fwd) 7.3% and has returned 54.3% year-to-date.
MPLX has several other expansion projects under construction. The company says it expects to finish construction on two processing plants this year, and recently reached a final investment decision to expand its Whistler Pipeline. MPLX stock yields a juicy 9.2% (Fwd), but the stock has only managed a 2.1% YTD return.
Devon Energy is expected to report Q2 2022 earnings on 1st August 2022. The company is expected to report EPS of $2.29, good for 281.67% Y/Y growth. Enlink will report on 3rd August 2022 with consensus EPS being $0.06 vs. $-0.04 for last year’s comparable quarter, while MPLX LP is expected to do so on 2nd August, 2022, whereby it has a consensus EPS of $0.82 compared to $0.66 a year ago.
Meanwhile, EnLink’s cash flow has been rising thanks to higher commodity prices. The company has increased its capex range from $230 million-$$260 million up to $280 million-$310 million, which should drive growth in the near-term.
ត្រលប់ទៅខែឧសភា ក្រុមហ៊ុន Kinder Morgan Inc. ក្រុមហ៊ុនបុត្រសម្ព័ន្ធ (NYSE: KMI) បានចាប់ផ្តើមរដូវកាលបើកចំហមួយដើម្បីវាស់ស្ទង់ចំណាប់អារម្មណ៍របស់អ្នកដឹកជញ្ជូនក្នុងការពង្រីក 2.0 Bcf/d Gulf Coast Express Pipeline (GCX) ។
ទន្ទឹមនឹងនោះ KMI បានបញ្ចប់រដូវកាលបើកទូលាយសម្រាប់កិច្ចសហប្រតិបត្តិការរួចហើយ បំពង់ផ្លូវហាយវេ Permian (PHP) ដោយមានអ្នកដឹកជញ្ជូនគ្រឹះរួចហើយសម្រាប់ពាក់កណ្តាលនៃសមត្ថភាពពង្រីក 650 MMcf/d ដែលបានគ្រោងទុក។
កាលពីថ្ងៃពុធ, KMI reported Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.27, beating by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $0.28 was in-line while revenue of $5.15B (+63.5% Y/Y) beat by $1.34B.
For the full FY 2022, KMI expects to generate net income of $2.5B and declare dividends of $1.11 per share, a 3% increase from the 2021 declared dividends.
In the LNG space, in May, the U.S. Department of Energy អនុញ្ញាតការនាំចេញ LNG បន្ថែម from the planned Golden Pass LNG Terminal in Texas and Magnolia LNG Terminal in Louisiana as the U.S. seeks to boost LNG exports to Europe.
ជាកម្មសិទ្ធិរួមរបស់ ក្រុមហ៊ុន Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) និង Qatar Petroleumគម្រោងនាំចេញ Golden Pass LNG តម្លៃ $10B ត្រូវបានគេរំពឹងថានឹងដំណើរការនៅឆ្នាំ 2024 ខណៈពេលដែល Magnolia LNG ដែលជាកម្មសិទ្ធិរបស់ Glenfarne Group នឹងចេញលក់តាមអ៊ីនធឺណិតនៅឆ្នាំ 2026។ ស្ថានីយទាំងពីរនេះត្រូវបានគេរំពឹងថានឹងផលិតឧស្ម័នធម្មជាតិច្រើនជាង 3B cf/day ទោះបីជាយ៉ាងណាក៏ដោយ។ Magnolia មិនទាន់ចុះកិច្ចសន្យាជាមួយអតិថិជននៅឡើយ។
ពីមុនអ្នកអភិវឌ្ឍន៍ LNG របស់អាមេរិកមិនមានឆន្ទៈក្នុងការសាងសង់កន្លែងផ្តល់ហិរញ្ញវត្ថុដោយខ្លួនឯងដែលមិនត្រូវបានធានាដោយកិច្ចសន្យារយៈពេលវែងពីបណ្តាប្រទេសអ៊ឺរ៉ុបនោះទេ។ ទោះជាយ៉ាងណាក៏ដោយ សង្រ្គាមអ៊ុយក្រែនបានលាតត្រដាងពីបាតដៃទន់ខ្សោយរបស់អឺរ៉ុប ហើយការពិតដ៏អាក្រក់កំពុងបង្ខំឱ្យមានការគិតឡើងវិញអំពីប្រព័ន្ធថាមពលរបស់ពួកគេ។ នាពេលថ្មីៗនេះ ប្រទេសអាល្លឺម៉ង់ ហ្វាំងឡង់ ឡាតវី និងអេស្តូនី បានបង្ហាញពីបំណងឆ្ពោះទៅមុខជាមួយនឹងស្ថានីយនាំចូល LNG ថ្មី។
Exxon is slated to report Q2 earnings on 29th July whereby the United States’ largest independent oil company is expected to post EPS of $3.41 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 210%.
ក្នុងខែឧសភា, the DoE approved expanded permits សម្រាប់ Cheniere ថាមពល's (NYSE: LNG) ស្ថានីយ Sabine Pass នៅរដ្ឋ Louisiana និងរោងចក្រ Corpus Christi នៅរដ្ឋតិចសាស់។ ការអនុម័តអនុញ្ញាតឱ្យស្ថានីយនាំចេញស្មើនឹង 0.72 ពាន់លានហ្វីតគូបនៃ LNG ក្នុងមួយថ្ងៃទៅកាន់ប្រទេសណាមួយដែលសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកមិនមានកិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងពាណិជ្ជកម្មសេរី រួមទាំងអឺរ៉ុបទាំងអស់ផងដែរ។ Cheniere និយាយថា គ្រឿងបរិក្ខារកំពុងផលិតឧស្ម័នរួចហើយច្រើនជាងត្រូវបានគ្របដណ្តប់ដោយការអនុញ្ញាតនាំចេញមុនៗ។
Cheniere is expected to report Q2 earnings on 4th August, with EPS expected to clock in at $2.76, good for a 411.11% Y/Y increase.
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Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/companies-taking-advantage-america-lng-000000486.html