ឧទ្ធម្ភាគចក្រ និងប្រព័ន្ធមីស៊ីលរបស់រុស្ស៊ី អ៊ីរ៉ង់អាចនឹងទិញក្នុងពេលឆាប់ៗនេះ

Iran expects to receive the first of the 24 Su-35 Flanker-E fighter jets it ordered from Russia as soon as Mar. 21, the Persian New Year. Tehran also claims it has ordered helicopters and missile systems.

Shahriar Heidari, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, told Iranian state media that Iran has ordered other Russian military equipment, including helicopters, air defense systems, and other missile systems, and expects to receive them soon.

While the specific equipment Iran expects in addition to Su-35s remains unclear, the seemingly imminent delivery of those two dozen air superiority fighters, originally built for Egypt, has dominated discussions and headlines.

“There is a lot of hype around the supply of Su-35s to Iran because of the war in Ukraine, the ‘Egyptian background’ and the balance of power in the region,” Anton Mardasov, an independent Russian analyst and non-resident scholar of the Middle East Institute’s Syria program, told me.

He pointed out that China also ordered 24 Su-35s back in 2015. Such a relatively small number did not, of course, have much of an impact on the overall combat potential of the Chinese air force. However, as Mardasov outlined, it did allow the Chinese “to compare their aviation capabilities with those of Russia, primarily in terms of engine and avionics development, and to make further decisions in terms of purchases or their own aircraft construction.”

“This is a key point for the Iranian Armed Forces because its fleet of combat aircraft, including the ‘novelties’ of the local military-industrial complex, is extremely outdated," គាត់​បាន​និយាយ​ថា។

ឧទ្ធម្ភាគចក្រ

Heidari’s mention of helicopters is interesting since Russia has various utility and attack helicopters Iran may hope to acquire for its aging rotary fleet.

Farzin Nadimi, a defense and security analyst and Associate Fellow of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, predicts possible types Iran might buy or even co-produce “include Mi-38, Mi-26, Mi-28N, and Ka-32/-226/-60/-52.”

“I think Mi-38 and Ka-32 or a modern version of it are more likely,” he told me.

The Mil Mi-38 is a medium transport helicopter, and the Ka-32 is a variant of the Kamov Ka-27 military helicopter.

Regarding a possible attack helicopter acquisition, Nadimi believes Iran might opt for the Mi-28N over the Ka-52 since the latter “hasn’t had a brilliant performance in the recent war.”

Egypt, which bought 46 Ka-52s and is the only other foreign operator of that helicopter, was reportedly unhappy with its acquisition, complaining of technical problems and difficulties flying them in hotter climates.

The bulk of Iran’s existing attack helicopter fleet comprises the aging AH-1J International variant of the Cobra that Tehran acquired from the U.S. in the early 1970s. Iran built two versions of the AH-1J in the 2010s: the Toufan I and Toufan II.

Mardasov does not share “widespread opinion” about possible deliveries of attack helicopters like the Ka-52.

“Theoretically, it is certainly possible since the Iranian drone deliveries have caused some chaos in the former pattern of relations, and we do not know the tacit agreements and possible exceptions,” he said. “Nevertheless, I would suggest that we are talking, rather, about the multi-purpose passenger Ka-226 since the sides were even negotiating about organizing joint production of this helicopter.”

He noted that the three-year military reform recently announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense could, if implemented according to plan, see “the number of army aviation increased exactly twofold.”

“This is a huge domestic order, and I do not know how any foreign orders can be implemented under such a reform,” he said.

Missile Systems

In របាយការណ៍ 2019, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) anticipated that after the UN arms embargo on Iran expired in October 2020, Tehran might consider purchasing Russian Su-30 fighters, Yak-130 trainers, and T-90 main battle tanks.

“Iran has also shown interest in acquiring S-400 air defense systems and Bastion coastal defense systems from Russia,” added the report.

While Iran opted for the more advanced Su-35 over the Su-30, possibly because the aircraft were already produced for Egypt, there has been no indication Iran is currently interested in either the Yak trainer or the T-90 tank.

In 2016, Iran finally took delivery of the Russian S-300 air defense missile systems it had ordered from Russia back in 2007. It has also developed the indigenous Bavar-373, which Iranian officials have អួត is superior to the S-300 and a peer to the more advanced S-400.

Mardasov is also highly skeptical about Iran acquiring the S-400 or Bastion anytime soon.

“If we think logically: given the process of rearming from S-300 to S-400, the problems on the border with Ukraine, and, on top of that, Iran’s own developments, I do not think that this contract can be implemented in the medium term,” he said. “Perhaps we are talking about short-range systems.”

“I am also skeptical about the Bastions because there is a shortage of high-precision weapons in the Russian forces,” he added. “And you could also see that the Russian military has used the Onyx missiles of this coastal missile system more than once to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.”

Nadimi, on the other hand, believes it’s likely that Iran will receive the S-400. He also doubts that such an acquisition would negate Tehran’s claims about the Bavar-373.

“The Bavar-373 is officially placed between S-300 and S-400 capability-wise, so Iran won’t feel any shame in assimilating it, especially considering the fact that Bavar-373 service entry is believed to be behind schedule,” he said.

Nadimi also believes the Bastion-P “might be an area of interest” but doubts it is likely “given Iran’s own advances in long-range anti-ship missiles.”