“Is the economy under control or is it spiraling out of control? That’s the million-dollar question traders continue arguing over,” sums up CrackedMarket blogger Jani Ziedins.
Clearly, the latter argument prevailed — again — after Wall Street’s worst day in two years, and futures hinting of more pain for Thursday. Among the gloomsters, Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd warned of a possible“summer of pain” — a 45% drop from the top for the S&P 500 and 75% down for the Nasdaq.
អាន: ទីផ្សារមិនបានធ្វើសកម្មភាពបែបនេះតាំងពីឆ្នាំ 1981 មកម្ល៉េះ ហើយនេះជារបៀបដែលវាដំណើរការ
No doubt, Wall Street has been ratcheting stock forecasts lower in recent months. On the side of optimists, JPMorgan’s ever-stoic top equity strategist Marko Kolanovic told ទីភ្នាក់ងារ Bloomberg (in an interview before Wednesday) that equities will “climb out of this hole,” as recession and stagflation fears are overblown.
Indeed, our ការហៅនៃថ្ងៃ from Evercore strategists says that markets are spiraling on the view that recession is a foregone conclusion. They also say that panicky, leveraged retail investors who have been behind this selloff, should calm down soonish as the pros aren’t running scared (yet).
“On Thursday, we will get an idea whether the market action is part of a volatile bottoming process, our base case, or whether the decline could materially undercut SPX 3,854, triggering a capitulation trade,” notes the Evercore team, led by Julian Emanuel.
Offering their view of what’s been happening with this selloff, Emanuel and the team argue that markets have been caught up in Fed “misdirection,” rallying despite hawkish remarks from Chair Jerome Powell, then giving it all back a day later, echoing what happened after the early-May Fed meeting.
What’s key here is not whether markets understand the Fed’s intent, but “whether a recession in 2022-23 is avoidable in combating generationally elevated inflation, with the only experience previously being the Volcker Fed tightening (1971-81) to the point where multiple recessions were an inevitability.”
Emanuel and the team don’t think the Fed needs to precipitate a recession, but say stocks are behaving like it does.
“The distinction is critical. The last three non-Recession Bear Markets declined on average -21.3% — 2018 a ‘V’ bottom, 2011 and 1998 a ‘W’ — though none registered as an ‘official’ Bear. The last three Recession Bear Markets (2020, 2007-09, 2000-02) declined on average -47.9%,” says Evercore.
Panicky investors, notably on the retail side (they’ve been blamed before), should calm down soonish, it says.
“We continue to expect the Public (whose job prospects remain robust and
balance sheets healthy) liquidating its Margin Debt to yield to the contrary signals/Misdirection of depressed sentiment and defensive professional positioning, stabilizing stocks in the days ahead,” say the strategists.
ការភ្ញាក់ផ្អើល
ប្រព័ន្ធស៊ីស្កូ
ស៊ីអេសស៊ី
is on track to open at its weakest since late 2020 as China’s COVID-19 lockdowns battered its outlook.
After Walmart
WMT,
និងគោលដៅ
ធីជីធី
downbeat results this week, Kohl’s
អេស។ អេស។
is down on weak earnings and slashed forecasts, a day after two executives left. Bed Bath & Beyond
ប៊ីប៊ីប៊ី,
stock also down on ការណែនាំខ្សោយ from late Wednesday.
Once a top-rated hedge fund, Melvin Capital, is closing its doors.
The latest weekly jobless claims report showed a rise of 21,000, while the Philly Fed manufacturing report tumbled sharply to 2.6 in May from 17.6 in prior month. Existing home sales and leading indicators are still to come.
A case of monkey pox has been identified in Massachusetts, with officials probing links to the rare disease from a spate of outbreaks in Europe.
ទីផ្សារ
ភាគហ៊ុន
ឌីស៊ីអាយអេស។
COMP
មាន headed south, along with bond yields
TMUBMUSD ១០ ឆ្នាំ
TMUBMUSD ១០ ឆ្នាំ
ប្រេង
CL១៥០,
ដុល្លារ
ឌីស៊ីអ៊ី
and the whole crypto space
BTCUSD,
are weaker. Gold
GC00,
is up nearly 1%.
សញ្ញាធីក
ទាំងនេះគឺជាសន្លឹកឆ្នោតដែលត្រូវបានស្វែងរកច្រើនបំផុតនៅលើ MarketWatch គិតត្រឹមម៉ោង 6 ព្រឹកម៉ោងខាងកើត៖
គំនូសតាង
Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Markets, is keeping an eye on one big name for Thursday — Apple
អេអេសអិល
— and advises investors do the same.
“If this stock breaks support at $139, it’s probably lights out for the entire stock market. That would create a lower low for Apple, a breach of support, and set up a drop to around $123. I don’t see how the entire market doesn’t follow Apple lower at that point,” said Kramer.
Mott Capital
ចៃដន្យអាន
A rural Japanese town’s COVID-19 relief money was mistakenly sent to a guy who gambled it all away.
Former President George W. Bush made a rather large Freudian slip.
ត្រូវដឹងចាប់ផ្តើមពីដំបូងហើយត្រូវបានធ្វើបច្ចុប្បន្នភាពរហូតដល់កណ្តឹងបើកប៉ុន្តែ ចុះឈ្មោះនៅទីនេះ ដើម្បីបញ្ជូនវាទៅប្រអប់អ៊ីមែលរបស់អ្នក។ កំណែអ៊ីមែលនឹងត្រូវផ្ញើចេញនៅម៉ោងប្រហែល ៧ និង ៣០ នាទីព្រឹកខាងកើត។
ចង់បានច្រើនទៀតសម្រាប់ថ្ងៃខាងមុខ? ចុះឈ្មោះសម្រាប់ ដឹខេមរុនប្រចាំថ្ងៃការធ្វើបទសម្ភាសន៍ពេលព្រឹកសំរាប់វិនិយោគិនរួមទាំងការអត្ថាធិប្បាយផ្តាច់មុខពីអ្នកនិពន្ធបារុននិង MarketWatch ។
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-stock-market-drop-20-or-48-from-the-peak-heres-the-key-factor-says-this-strategist-11652958716?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo