ការបដិសេធ៖ ព័ត៌មានដែលបានបង្ហាញមិនបង្កើតជាហិរញ្ញវត្ថុ ការវិនិយោគ ការជួញដូរ ឬប្រភេទផ្សេងទៀតនៃដំបូន្មានទេ ហើយគ្រាន់តែជាគំនិតរបស់អ្នកនិពន្ធប៉ុណ្ណោះ។
On 14 March 2023, OpenAI បានប្រកាស the release of their newest, smartest bot so far. Reportedly, ChatGPT 4.0 is better than version 3.5 in a multitude of ways.
ChatGPT is a large-scale artificial intelligence language model developed by OpenAI that has been trained on enormous amounts of text data. This allows the bot to understand and generate responses to complex queries from the user.
It is a language model whose primary purpose is to generate responses like a human. Although it tries to be accurate, the user must verify the information it generates, because the bot is not designed to be 100% accurate but rather to mimic a human.
This is an important distinction as it forces the prerogative on the user to fact-check and verify what ChatGPT says. However, it’s training on the basic use of indicators used in technical analysis appeared sound.
bot អាចបង្កើតការសន្និដ្ឋានឡូជីខល ប្រសិនបើបង្ហាញជាមួយទិន្នន័យពីសូចនាករ ហើយថែមទាំងអាចវិភាគសូចនាករជាច្រើនដើម្បីបង្កើតការសន្និដ្ឋានរួម។
The chatbot does not have access to live data such as current market prices of various assets, nor is it aware of the developments on the global stage after September 2021. Yet, it was possible to get its prediction on Cardano (ADA) and Bitcoin (BTC) prices in the coming years, and its answer was intriguing.
Taking the help of ChatGPT in devising a basic intra-day strategy
One can come up with an endless array of strategies to trade on various timeframes using a combination of TradingView indicators. The only limitation is the user’s imagination and familiarity with indicators. It is unlikely that ChatGPT can come up with predictions based on data for the prices of an asset, such as Cardano. The AI model developed by AMBCrypto, on the other hand, can.
អានការព្យាករណ៍តម្លៃ 2023-24 របស់ Cardano
I began with a fairly simple task for GPT–Take the RSI and the moving averages and use them together to generate buy and sell signals for intra-day traders. After a few trial requests, the scope was narrowed down. Buy only when RSI is above 50, and use the Fibonacci numbers 13 and 21 as moving averages periods. Here was the response the bot presented –
ប្រភព៖ ChatGPT
និងកូដ PineScript សម្រាប់ដូចគ្នា។
ប្រភព៖ ChatGPT
I tested the strategy ChatGPT came up with on the Cardano chart. Since the point was to use the bot’s help to generate scalp trade signals, the 2-minute timeframe was used. Here are the results –
ប្រភព៖ TradingView
The strategy is to buy when RSI is above 50 and the moving averages are bullish. However, it must be noted that the exact entry and exit criteria are not clear enough.
ដូច្នេះហើយ យើងនឹងកែប្រែច្បាប់ចូល ហើយបញ្ចូលនៅពេលដែលតម្លៃបានធ្វើតេស្តឡើងវិញនូវការផ្លាស់ប្តូរមធ្យមភាគដែលជាចំណុច resistance ឬការគាំទ្រ (សម្រាប់មុខតំណែងខ្លី ឬវែង) ហើយនៅពេលដែល RSI ធ្លាក់ចុះខាងក្រោម (ឬឡើងខាងលើ) អព្យាក្រឹត 50។
As for exit, we shall target an R: R of 2:1, which means that we need to be successful at least 33% of the time to break even, but more on that later.
A demonstration of this began after the bearish crossover on the 2-minute chart late on 31 March. In total, we had at least seven clear trade signals within 9 hours which cumulatively produced +6.25R. This meant that risking 1% per trade would have given a 6.25% return within ten hours of watching the charts.
It must be stated that many more trades were possible based solely on the rules. Since the trend was shifting at that time, they would have been forced to close to breakeven and could be confusing to decipher for the reader.
ជាងនេះទៅទៀត ពួកគេនឹងចំណាយថ្លៃពាណិជ្ជកម្ម ហើយស៊ីចូលទៅក្នុងប្រាក់ចំណេញរបស់ scalper ដែលជាកត្តាមួយទៀតដែលបង្ហាញពីរបៀបដែលគ្រោះថ្នាក់ដល់ស្បែកក្បាល។
Can GPT predict ADA’s 2023 move?
The bot refuses to venture into the business of predicting crypto prices in future years, even as a fun pursuit. To test the capabilities of the bot, I used a jailbreak method a Reddit user posted in the recent past. Using this, we asked ChatGPT what it thought the price of Bitcoin and Cardano would be in 2023.
ប្រភព៖ ChatGPT
This is an extremely optimistic view. However, we must consider factors such as the inflation that peaked in 2022, as well as geopolitical events such as the invasion of Ukraine in March 2022. When I gave the bot this information and asked it to revise its prediction/guess, it came up with interesting figures.
ប្រភព៖ ChatGPT
Well, this is extremely close to the $68.7k ATH that BTC reached in November 2021, and the $3.1 ATH that ADA reached in early September 2021.
In mid-April, ADA faced rejection from the $0.46 highs. The inability of the bulls to defend the $0.4 support meant the price has trended downward for the past month. This saw a change over the past week.
This break in market structure happened on 28 May, when ADA bulls forced a daily session close at $0.383. However, the token has lost a modest value since then and was trading at $0.379 at press time.
The market cap of ADA stood at $13 billion and its 24-hr trading volume stood at $176 million.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 rested comfortably above the neutral 50-mark, showing a possible short-term upward movement. The On Balance Volume (OBV), on the other hand, seemed to be moving sideways.
Source: ADA/USDT, TradingView
It’s here that one should note that besides technical skills, a trader’s experience is of great importance in anticipating a coin’s move.
ដូច្នេះសំណួរគឺ -
តើអ្វីដែលបំបែកពាណិជ្ជករល្អពីឈ្មួញអាក្រក់?
It is possible to go on and on taking different indicators together, altering and tweaking their input values, and backtesting their signals. However, we shall move in the direction of risk management. Risk management is what separates a trader from a gambler. It also helps undercut the emotion a trader might feel during a trade. Fear almost always arises when the trader has risked more than they can stomach. This can negatively impact profitability.
Back-testing aside, any profitable trader must be able to limit their losses. Each trader is probabilistically bound to run into a streak of losing trades. Some key elements of risk management ChatGPT identified were diversification, position sizing, stop-loss orders, risk-reward ratio, and risk tolerance. Diversification is necessary because crypto is a highly volatile market. The assets are, for the most part, positively correlated with Bitcoin. This means that investors could look to allocate only a minority of their funds toward crypto-assets, which would be anywhere from 5% to 50%. Having one’s net worth in crypto is highly risky.
Stop-loss orders are orders placed at levels of invalidation of a trade idea. They are automatically executed and are set up in such a way that the trader exits their losing position if the price reaches a predetermined level. This level can be determined by technical analysis. The capital lost during that trade would ideally be less than 3% of the entire account size. But why? Why shouldn’t one trade by risking a significant chunk of their account size in each trade?
ស្ថានភាពមិនល្អនៅក្នុងទីផ្សារមិនគួរបំផ្លាញគណនីជួញដូររបស់អ្នកទេ។
ប្រភព៖ NewTraderU
The attached chart reveals that a trader with a 30% win rate is guaranteed (has a 100% chance) of having a losing streak of 8 trades within a 100-trade sequence. If the trader risked 10% of their starting account size with each trade and lost eight in a row they would be down by 80%. The trading system isn’t broken, but probability will spoil your profits. Trading is not a sprint to the finish line but an excruciating marathon where your biggest enemy is yourself – Fear and greed, in particular.
ដើម្បីរស់រានមានជីវិត បរិមាណដើមទុនដែលមានហានិភ័យក្នុងមួយពាណិជ្ជកម្មត្រូវតែអាចទប់ទល់នឹងការចាញ់ដែលនឹងផ្អែកលើអត្រាឈ្នះ។ ទោះបីជាការជួញដូរដែលអ្នកទទួលយកគឺអស្ចារ្យជាមួយនឹង 3: 1 ឬ 4: 1 ហានិភ័យ - ទៅរង្វាន់ វាមិនមានប្រសិទ្ធភាពច្រើនក្នុងការការពារដើមទុនរបស់អ្នកនៅពេលដែលទីផ្សារហាក់ដូចជាមានលេខរបស់អ្នក។
Hence, risking no more than 1%, or 3% per trade would be far more likely to succeed in the long run. The profits might not be quick, but they will be present. And, the emotional side of trading will also likely lose its intensity since each trade won’t make or break you.
ការយល់ដឹងអំពី R: R និងការគណនានៅពេលដែលពាណិជ្ជករមានភាគហ៊ុន
ឧបមាថាយើងមានគណនីមួយមានតម្លៃ $1000។ យើងត្រូវបានកំណត់ថានឹងបាត់បង់មិនលើសពី 1% ក្នុងមួយពាណិជ្ជកម្ម ដែលមានន័យថាការខាតបង់នីមួយៗនឹងត្រូវចំណាយត្រឹមតែ 10 ដុល្លារ ឬ 1% នៃទំហំសរុបប៉ុណ្ណោះ។ ទន្ទឹមនឹងនេះ ការជួញដូរដែលឈ្នះរបស់យើងអាចទទួលបាន $20 ឬ $30 ឬចំនួនផ្សេងទៀត។ សមាមាត្រនៃដើមទុនដែលប្រថុយនឹងរង្វាន់ដែលទទួលបាន ប្រសិនបើការជួញដូរឈានដល់ការបញ្ចប់ត្រូវបានគេហៅថា ហានិភ័យទៅរង្វាន់ ឬ R: R. ជាធម្មតា ពាណិជ្ជករកំណត់គោលដៅសមាមាត្រ 3: 1 មានន័យថាពួកគេសុខចិត្តបាត់បង់ 1% ក្នុងមួយពាណិជ្ជកម្ម ប៉ុន្តែ ស្វែងរកការឈ្នះ 3% នៃទំហំគណនីរបស់ពួកគេ។
A trader will likely not be successful 100% of the time. If they are correct about 30% of the time, they could still be profitable. Even a trader with a 5%-win rate could be profitable in the long run. A trader who only places 3:1 RR trades will need to be successful (1-(3/(3+1))*100 i.e. 25% of the time only to break even. Similarly, a trader who only wins 5% of the time would need to place only trades with an RR of 20:1. (1-(x/x+1))*100=5, solving for x, we get 20.
ប្រសិនបើពាណិជ្ជករស្វែងរកការជួញដូរ 3R និងមានហេតុផលច្បាស់លាស់ (ឧទាហរណ៍ ផ្អែកលើការវិភាគបច្ចេកទេស ឬការវិភាគជាមូលដ្ឋាន) ដើម្បីដាក់ពាណិជ្ជកម្មនោះ ហើយពួកគេទទួលបានជោគជ័យជាមួយនឹងពាណិជ្ជកម្មច្រើនជាង 25% នោះពួកគេនឹងក្លាយជាពាណិជ្ជករដែលរកប្រាក់ចំណេញបាន។
វាអាចជួយរក្សាទិនានុប្បវត្តិពាណិជ្ជកម្ម
Pesky ពិជគណិតមួយឡែក តើពាណិជ្ជករតាមដានអត្រាឈ្នះរបស់ពួកគេដោយរបៀបណា? ដំណោះស្រាយទូទៅបំផុតគឺទិនានុប្បវត្តិពាណិជ្ជកម្ម។ នេះគឺជាសៀវភៅកត់ត្រាដែលពាណិជ្ជករអាចកត់ត្រារាល់ពាណិជ្ជកម្មដែលពួកគេដាក់ និងការយល់ដឹងដែលពួកគេរៀនពីវា។ ChatGPT អាចជួយបង្កើតគំរូមូលដ្ឋានសម្រាប់គោលបំណងនេះ –
ប្រភព៖ ChatGPT
In this template, we see the R: R of the trades taken, their success rates, and the trader’s reasons to enter and exit the trade. Traders can also note their emotions to prevent the same mistakes from being repeated. The journal can also be used to find an edge in the market for yourself.
នេះមានន័យថាព័ត៌មានអំពីប្រភេទពាណិជ្ជកម្មដែលដំណើរការញឹកញាប់បំផុតសម្រាប់អ្នក។ វែងឬខ្លី? ប្រសិនបើយូរ តើ RSI>50 ទាំង M5 និង M15 អាចជាកត្តាមួយផ្សេងទៀតដែលអ្នកចង់ពិនិត្យមើលមុននឹងសម្លឹងមើលមុខតំណែងដ៏វែងចាប់តាំងពីចំណុចប្រសព្វនេះលេចឡើងដើម្បីផ្តល់ឱ្យពាណិជ្ជកម្មរបស់អ្នកទទួលបានជោគជ័យបន្ថែមទៀតដែរឬទេ?
ការគណនាដើមទុនដែលមានហានិភ័យក្នុងមួយពាណិជ្ជកម្ម
These and more questions can be answered by implementing a journal. Another tool that the ChatGPT bot can aid in creating is a position size calculator. We have already seen R: R and the success rate can be determined through journals. Let’s try to recall the probability chart presented earlier. Even with a 60% win rate, there is still a 92% probability that one will see a streak of 4 consecutive losing trades within a span of 100 trades.
Therefore, the requirement would be to risk 1% or 3% or something in between for each trade setup. Calculating this can be time-consuming. I asked ChatGPT to come up with some code to help calculate the position size. It obliged and presented below is some code the bot generated. The input prompts would have to be account size, leverage used, risk threshold, and stop loss distance.
ប្រភព៖ ChatGPT
Let’s assume an account size is $1000, the risk threshold is 5%, stop-loss percentage distance of trade is 6%. The leverage used is 10x. The initial margin required is calculated as:
រឹម = (1000 * 0.05) / (0.08 * 10) = $62.5 ។
សម្រាប់ពាណិជ្ជករកន្លែង អានុភាពដែលបានប្រើនឹងមាន 1x ។
តើ ChatGPT មានសារៈប្រយោជន៍យ៉ាងណាចំពោះពាណិជ្ជករអាជីព?
ខ្ញុំបានសួរ Mikaela Pisani, ML Lead និង Senior Data Scientist នៅ Rootstrap។ នាងគឺជាអ្នកជំនាញក្នុងការអភិវឌ្ឍន៍ទិន្នន័យធំ និងបញ្ញាសិប្បនិម្មិត ហើយការឆ្លើយតបរបស់នាងគឺ
"ពាណិជ្ជករអាចប្រើ ChatGPT ជាឧបករណ៍មួយដើម្បីទទួលបានការណែនាំនៅលើទីផ្សារភាគហ៊ុន។ វាទំនងជាមានប្រយោជន៍បំផុតសម្រាប់ពាណិជ្ជករដែលចាប់ផ្តើមដំបូង ដោយអាចឱ្យពួកគេរៀនពីមូលដ្ឋានគ្រឹះនៃការជួញដូរភាគហ៊ុនពី chatbot ។ ពាណិជ្ជករកម្រិតខ្ពស់បន្ថែមទៀតអាចប្រើវាជាឧបករណ៍សម្រាប់ការប្រមូលផ្តុំការយល់ដឹង និងធ្វើការសម្រេចចិត្តបានលឿនជាងមុន ប៉ុន្តែមានដែនកំណត់ដែលផ្តល់លទ្ធផលគឺផ្អែកលើទិន្នន័យដែលបានផ្តល់ (ទិន្នន័យបណ្តុះបណ្តាលបច្ចុប្បន្នមានរហូតដល់ឆ្នាំ 2021)។
As highlighted earlier in the article, the use of the bot in live trading is severely curtailed. But what about the bot’s impact on algorithmic trading?
"ក្រៅពីការកំណត់ទិន្នន័យ ដែលជាចំណុចខ្សោយចម្បងរបស់ ChatGPT សម្រាប់ពាណិជ្ជករ អត្ថប្រយោជន៍សម្រាប់ពាណិជ្ជករនឹងក្លាយជាពេលវេលាដ៏ខ្លីបំផុត ដោយសារទីផ្សារស្រូបយកឧបករណ៍ AI ទាំងនេះ ដើម្បីបង្កើនប្រសិទ្ធភាពនៃទីផ្សារតាមរយៈស្វ័យប្រវត្តិកម្ម និងការធ្វើឱ្យប្រសើរឡើងនូវលទ្ធផលនៃក្បួនដោះស្រាយការជួញដូរ។
តាមវិធីនេះ យើងអាចមើល ChatGPT ហាក់ដូចជាមានផលប៉ះពាល់ស្រដៀងគ្នាទៅនឹងវេទិកាជួញដូរប្រេកង់ខ្ពស់ដំបូង ដែលផ្តល់អត្ថប្រយោជន៍សក្តានុពលសម្រាប់ពាណិជ្ជករដំបូង ប៉ុន្តែក្លាយជាផ្នែកនៃបទដ្ឋាននៃទីផ្សារយ៉ាងឆាប់រហ័ស។
Once again, the lack of access to live data meant ChatGPT will only likely be substantially useful to beginner traders. It is likely to positively impact intermediate trades as well, who can use the bot to figure out how to apply multiple indicators and metrics harmoniously and use it to gain a better understanding of the market.
It is important to remember that ChatGPT is engineered to respond to a human and is not compelled to be accurate 100% of the time. Diligent users must be extra cautious of the outputs that the chatbot provides.
ប្រភព៖ https://ambcrypto.com/chatgpt-ada-price-prediction-11/